Islands Business - Pacific Update: Chaudhry labours to topple Qarase

May is the generally expected timing for Fiji's next general election, although it could be delayed to August. Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase says he has decided on a date (the poll will take a week).

The election office says it will be ready to go from early April.

D-Day nearing… PM Laisenia Qarase talking to reporters.

The contest will be between Qarase's Soqosoqo Duavata ni Lewenivanua (SDL) and the Indian-dominated Fiji Labour Party (FLP) led by Mahendra Chaudhry, who had only a year in office as the country's first Indian prime minister before being deposed by a Fijian nationalist coup in May 2000.

He's determined to regain power. He may possibly do so, although this is a less likely outcome than appeared to be the case in 2005.

Qarase appears to have an improving chance of remaining in power for another five-year term.
However, major population shifts in some key constituencies could produce surprises.

Army chief Frank Bainimarama says the army will support and protect whatever democratic government is formed and will suppress any attempts to seize power illegally.

In the run-up to the election for the 71-seat parliament, several smaller parties are in discussion with the Fiji Labour Party about cooperating to form a coalition government to succeed Qarase's.

They include the United People's Party, which has mainly General Voter support, the National Alliance, a new Fijian led party campaigning on a multiracial platform, and the National Federation Party, representative mainly of conservative Indian businessmen.

In February, the Conservative Alliance Matanitu Vanua (CAMV) dissolved itself and its members joined Qarase's SDL.

CAMV supporters were sympathetic to the coup and their six MPs gave the SDL the majority it needed to form a government.

The SDL relies heavily on supporters of Fijian political supremacy but now claims to be a multiracial party open to non-Fijians.

In February, it claimed that five FLP's Indian MPs were ready to defect to it.

In March, Fiji's Great Council of Chiefs will meet to perform its constitutional role of electing the country's president and vice-president.

Word from the elderly incumbent, Ratu Josefa Iloilo, was initially that he wanted to retire rather than be elected for a second five-year term of office.

In February, however, Iloilo, believed to be acceding to a request from the army, said he was prepared to carry on.

Iloilo is believed to have ignored requests from the Qarase government to replace Bainimarama with a commander of the government's choice.

The government is thought to be anxious to get rid of Bainimarama who has warned several times that he would intervene if it persisted with pro-nationalists policies he saw as being a threat to democracy.

The army warned in February that it would not accept as president anyone tainted by involvement in the 2000 coup.

VANUATU
Lini's term uncertain

The political game that so frequently terminates rule by the government of the day is fuelling up for another typical eruption.

This could remove the government of Prime Minister Ham Lini perhaps sooner than later after a reign which began in December 2004.

In mid-February, Lini's government was composed of eight party supporters--National United Party (NUP), Vanua'aku Party (VP), People's Progressive Party (PPP), National Community Association Party (NCAP), Melanesian Progressive Party (PAP), Vanuatu Republican Party (VRP), People's Action Party )PAP) and two Union of Moderate Parties (UMP) backbench MPs.

While the government claimed a firm 35-member majority (in late November 2005), the Vanua'aku Party said it would remain loyal to Lini until the government's term in office expires in 2008.

There were reports that government and opposition politicians were in touch about a move to defeat the government.

There were other reports that Lini would bolster his support by sacking two ministers from his small coalition allies to replace them with two MPs captured from the opposition.

Back in November 2005, Lini placated the NUP and VP by firing two ministers, Moana Carcasses of the Greens and Joshua Kalsakau of the NCAP to replace them with VRP's Maxime Carlot Korman and Louis Etap.

Soon afterwards, the once powerful but now badly weakened UMP opposition, initiated what became a flopped move for a vote against the government.

Now UMP, plagued by internal rivalries and its leader, former prime minister Serge Vohor reputedly unwilling to consult its central council, is forging connections with the ambitious Greens.

The hope is that with 17 MPs, 9 UMPs, 7 Greens and one Labour, it has enough mass to attract discontented government MPs to its side in numbers sufficient to win a vote of no confidence.

Opposition spokesman, Kalfau Moli, told the local media that Lini was unable to control some of his ministers, in particular foreign affairs minister Sato Kilman and agriculture minister Barak Sope.

NEW CALEDONIA
Avenir Ensemble in control

Avenir Ensemble (Future Together) (AE) formed in 2004 by disenchanted former supporters of the anti-independence Rassemblement pour la Caledonie dans la Republique (RPCR) continues to sit comfortably in power as leader of the territorial government. This is structured constitutionally to give indigenous Kanaks and other communities a significant share of power. While AE favours the preservation of present links with France, its leader, Marie Noelle Themereau, as New Caledonia's president, is implementing policies for the improvement of economic, education and social services, including cheap housing for Kanaks.

Politically, the Kanaks remain dogged by personal differences between their leaders that have sapped the former potency of their umbrella party, the FLNKS.

France's minister for overseas territories, Francois Barin, appointed in mid-2005, was due to make his first visit to the territory in February/March after hosting a February meeting in Paris at which New Caledonian representatives and the French government officials discussed progress with the transfer of various government responsibilities from France to the territorial government as agreed to by the Noumea pact of 1998. The meeting agreed that future voting rights would be restricted to citizens resident in the territory since 1998, 10 years later than the previous demarcation.

This decision will require the approval of both houses of the French assembly in Paris. The objective is to guarantee Kanaks that by the next major elections for provincial government in 2009 they would not be overwhelmed by an influx of settlers from metropolitan France.

Another topic was the amount and terms of annual French aid for New Caledonia, currently worth about US$1 billion, over the next five years.

SOLOMON ISLANDS
Getting ready for election

Parliament was dissolved on December 20 with the government led by Sir Allan Kemakeza continuing in a caretaker role.

338,000 people have registered to vote in a general election that must be conducted by April 20, according to the election office.

A date for the poll had not been gazetted by February 20. Some candidates expect April 7 to be the day for voting at 750 polling stations around the country.

History since the country's independence from Britain in 1978 shows that at least 70% of the 50 members of the outgoing parliament will lose their seats.

The attrition caused by the 2006 vote may be even higher. Many grassroots Solomon Islanders are disillusioned with the so-called “tensions” aroused by communal violence in Guadalcanal during 1999-2002.

The election office ruled in January that the bulk of the present political leadership, which they blame for the loss of jobs, income, inflation, collapse or deterioration of government services and other misfortunes suffered by them during the ethnic tension, former cabinet ministers and other figures awaiting trial on charges including corruption, intimidation, violence and other abuses of power were eligible for re-election provided they had not been tried and convicted by polling day.

Sir Thomas Chan, president of the Association of Independent Members of Parliament, which is the core of the retiring coalition government led by Sir Allan Kemakeza, said it would contest 30 seats.

The caretaker prime minister will probably retain his Russell Islands constituency seat but is thought unlikely to return as prime minister.

Investing authorities are expected to ask him to personally justify and fully account for a large sum drawn by him from an account established with a loan from the Taiwan government to meet claims for compensation for losses and damage caused by communal violence.

Several fragile new political parties have appeared. They are of little or no substance and will characteristically evaporate after the election.

Of possible significance is the Solomon Islands Party for Rural Advancement (SIPRA) which was launched in February to contest about 15 constituencies. The leader, Job Tausinga, a former MP, could be a contender for the prime minister's job.

The Solomon Islands Council of Women will support a record 15 women candidates. The next government is unlikely to shape up before the end of April or even early May.

No party or group is likely to win a majority. Surviving incumbent MPs with the ambition to lead the next government will have to fish for the support of many unknown politically inexperienced newcomers.