'The traditional approach of 'wait and mitigate' is a far worse strategy than pro-actively managing risk. There is no benefit in waiting to see if global warming will affect the region. Natural hazards already take an annual toll that destroys property, t


Not if, but when? This is the title of a commonsense brief that suggests means by which Pacific Islands can at least alleviate, if not avoid, the hazards that so many of them are so greatly exposed to.

Hurricanes, coastal attacks by waves, large and very large but also small, earthquakes, floods, landslides, droughts and a variety of other headaches that cause Pacific Islanders loss and heartbreaks every year.

Written for the World Bank by a team of 14 thoughtful professionals, the report is aimed at the region's leaders. Those that read it will hopefully have impressed on their minds the message in it: “The traditional approach of 'wait and mitigate' is a far worse strategy than pro-actively managing risk. There is no benefit in waiting to see if global warming will affect the region.

Natural hazards already take an annual toll that destroys property, threatens and takes lives and disrupts national economies. An additional disaster arising from climate change will only make matters worse.”

Boiled down, Pacific Islanders need to be more prepared to cope with hurricanes and other terrorist assaults on them by Mother Nature than they are now. There are now far more people, except in a few countries, at risk and with development, particularly unwise forms of development, much more property, infrastructure and land are at risk.

An immediate and inevitable response from government leaders is that for Lilliput economies the cost of defence against natural catastrophes is unbearably high. True, but as the report stresses, some remarkable advantages are to be had by such rudimentary strategies in averting coastal erosion and cushioning the shock of wave attacks by planting mangrove forests.

Much can be achieved in designating areas where it is foolish to build houses because of the risk of landslides, floods or storm surges.

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami catastrophe demonstrated the importance of maintaining natural wave breakers by managing coral reefs, mangroves and sandbanks and impressing on children to run like hell inland and uphill, or to a strong high building, when the sea suddenly retreats.

Pacific Islands people and their leaders need to adapt to changing circumstances, the report says. Well, over past centuries the islanders have adapted. Circumstances are now changing faster than ever before due to population pressure and the impacts of economic growth and now probably, climate change. This demands radical and swifter adaptation.

This magazine's April edition will deal with the report in greater detail, but here's a couple of points from it:

Hurricanes accounted for 76% of the region's reported disasters during 1950-2004, followed by earthquakes, droughts and floods. The average hurricane costs US$75.7 million in real 2004 value.

The worst recorded disaster in the Pacific Islands region in damage was the 1962's 135-knot Hurricane Karen which cost Guam 11 dead, destroyed most temporary buildings, and in 2004 values cost the equivalent of US$1.6 billion. In 1997, the 130-knot Hurricane Paka missed Guam by 480 kilometres. Disasters are getting more intense. Ten of the 15 worst ones happened in the last 15 years.

Here's the good news: The number of people killed by disasters is falling. This is probably due to early warnings, mainly for hurricanes, thanks to satellite monitoring since the 1980s.