'Part of Tonga's difficulties lie in deep rancour felt by many Tongans about the nature and diversity of royal business interests.'


Tonga's affairs have become more and more intriguing. The government is battling to avert economic collapse as a consequence of a pay rise thoroughly justified but also not justified by impecunious members of the civil service.

A figure in the country's nobility and holder of the parliamentary speaker's chair has been stripped of his title and chair because of his conviction for smuggling a big crate of booze into the country.

And on Saturday, February 11, the Prime Minister, Prince 'Ulukalala Lavaka Ata, was sacked by his elder brother, Crown Prince Tupouto'a. He was replaced with Dr Fred Sevele, one of the first two pro-democracy elected members of parliament to be appointed last year as members of the formerly only pro-royalty-member cabinet.

The announcement of Prince 'Ulukalala's departure didn't say he had been sacked, only that he had quit effective immediately and that the government deeply appreciated his distinguished service.

Tongans tend to be polite, and sincerely so, about their country's royalty, but not in as many numbers as it used to be the case.

His departure and Dr Sevele's promotion had been confidently expected from the previous months.

Tonga is in deep crisis, not that this is evident around the capital, Nuku'alofa, which normally is a naturally sleepy town apart from angry marches late last year by civil service strikers and pro-democracy demonstrators.

Financially, Tonga's condition is dire indeed, and getting worse, and not because of the huge pay rise the civil service thundered for. By the middle of this year, according to Tonga's very fine finance minister, the direness will be so deep that one is forced to wonder about how the country will keep going.

Rescue is at hand, however. Australia and New Zealand are hinting, along with pressure from them for the acceptance by the royalty of a democratic government, that they will help avert a slip down the drain.

Everyone acquainted with Prince 'Ulukalala, a former military officer, was certain he didn't want to be prime minister. But he took the job six years ago because he was instructed to. His heart wasn't in it. His tenure produced several disasters, notably the financially disastrous collapse of the national airline, that some people insist was his fault, not the people who got blamed for it. He had to deal with a deteriorating economy, a flopped attempt to shackle the local media and the hotting up by the pro-democracy movement of its campaign for a giant step forward in the way of political reform.

He appeared to retreat by going overseas from the difficulties posed by the great civil service strike.

Prince 'Ulukalala is said to have disapproved of the momentum of preparations, now well underway, for the adoption of a fully elected replacement for a parliament where two-thirds of the members are appointed by the monarchy and nobles and only a relatively powerless one-third elected by the proletariat. He's said even to have actively opposed the democracy campaign.

Now that he's been put out to pasture, Dr Sevele, one of Tonga's best known businessmen, has the unenviable task of stopping the economic rot and devising strategies for strengthening one of the shakiest economies in the Pacific.

As we mentioned only a few months ago, Tonga's shuffle toward democracy is an accelerating and irreversible one. There'd be a very bad reaction, nationally and internationally, if some foolish loyalist royalists attempted to slam the gear into reverse.

It will be a great surprise if Dr Sevele is not soon confirmed as prime minister. Tonga is in desperate need of a pragmatic, business-minded government intent on lifting the country out of the mire. He's the man for the job, that's if he's left alone with no strings attached to do it. He's on friendly working terms with Prince Tupouto'a, who as we've mentioned before, saw the writing on the wall a long time ago. As a pair working together, they are capable of ensuring that the transfer of power that Tonga is on the threshold of is a peaceful one.

Who at present is Tonga's real ruler? After several decades of having the final say in Tonga's affairs, that remarkable personality, the 87-year old King Taufa'ahau Tupou, is having yet another round of critical medical care in New Zealand. He's been there since January and there's no telling when he'll be able to return home, if at all.

The sacking was executed by the Crown Prince, as Prince Regent. That's where power lies, but with a personality who is moving to a point at which he will need to resolve some personal conflicts of interest.

Part of Tonga's difficulties lie in deep rancour felt by many Tongans about the nature and diversity of royal business interests.

Somewhere along the line, Tonga's royals will have to accept that for the security of the monarchy in its inevitably future modified form, they will have to make some economic decisions as painful as the country's new prime minister and capable finance minister will soon need to take in the national interest.