Le Mamea's Opposition SDUP leads poll.

Samisoni Pareti
Samoa is heading for a new government with a new prime minister come April, if recent polls are anything to go by. Organisers of the street polls are saying people should not read too much into the results.

The sample is usually 200 people picked at random on the streets of Apia and invited to respond to two or three questions.

But the outcome of the three conducted so far by Samoa's leading daily, Samoa Observer, has been consistent: voters prefer the Samoa Democratic United Party (SDUP) and its leader Le Mamea Ropati as opposed to the ruling Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP) and current Prime Minister, Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi.

On December 10 last year, respondents were asked to choose their preferred PM from the list of Tuilaepa, Le Mamea and Su'a Rimoni of the Samoa Party (SP).

Of the 200 polled, 81 picked Le Mamea, Tuilaepa 54 and Su'a had 27. Quite a few, 38, did not want any of the three, the newspaper poll showed.

The follow-up survey on January 14 focussed on party preferences of the electorates. Again SDUP topped the vote with 86, the ruling HRPP 64 and Samoa Party 13. Nineteen other votes were shared by the Christian Party and Samoa Progressive Party. Eighteen were undecided, the Observer said.

The newspaper also reported that over the last five weeks, majority of those polled, some 423, wanted Le Mamea to be the next PM. Support for Tuilaepa in the same period totalled 292. Attempts to get the Prime Minister to comment on the poll results were unsuccessful. But a news dispatch days after the first poll result was published said Tuilaepa had laughed off the outcome as ridiculous.

A more reasoned response came from his deputy Misa Telefoni Retzlaff who holds the finance portfolio and is viewed by many as PM material.

“Yes SDUP leads the polls,” he wrote to ISLANDS BUSINESS when the magazine sought his views on the newspaper poll on January 20.

“After 23 years in power, the natural urge is for change. I do feel though that HRPP will return to power on [the strength] of our record.The economy has done well under my leadership and guidance and the election results will determine my future role, if any. I am proud to stand by my record.”

Given that street polls in Apia are giving the opposition SDUP the upper hand, one can only assume that for Retzlaff to be right, the outcome of Samoa's March 31 poll will be pretty close.

One political analyst in Apia who asked not to be named suggests that HRPP may even lose its overwhelming majority in parliament.

Long-time Fiji resident but from Samoa originally, Dr Morgan Tuimaleali'ifano admits he has not been studying the political mix in the lead up to the election.

But returning from Apia recently, he tends to think that the issue confronting the ruling HRPP is not so much whether it is going to remain in power, but more to do with party leadership.

“My reading of the Observer polls is that it reflects the popularity or otherwise of Tuilaepa,” said Tuimaleali'ifano, who teaches history/politics at the University of the South Pacific's Fiji campus. May be if the party addresses this matter of leadership, it might help its popularity amongst the electorates.”

A former political writer in Samoa agreed, saying after three terms in office, Tuilaepa is no longer the most popular leader he used to be. Being humble is not one of his strong points, the former writer said.

“Tuilaepa might be a top bloke with developed countries but he is increasingly disliked in Samoa. Too often when he opens his mouth he is a public relations nightmare.”

The former journalist sighted as a case in point an incident last Christmas when Tuilaepa while visiting the main island of Savaii ordered an inter-island ferry about halfway to Upolu to turn around to pick him up.

Tuimaleali'ifano agrees the Observer polls seemed to highlight the issue facing HRPP which is leadership and not continuance governance.

He said Apia as the polls near is rife with rumours of a possible tussle for leadership in the ruling party, specifically on when Retzlaff will throw in his bid for party leadership.

“Tuilaepa is not going to give up his seat that easily but some believe the time may be right for Misa [Retzlaff's matai title] to make a move,” the analyst said.

Retzlaff was annoyed when asked by ISLANDS BUSINESS on whether he would contest Tuilaepa for the HRPP leadership.

“Should your sources be prepared to reveal their identities and the source of their stories, I will then perhaps dignify these rumours with a response,” he told the magazine.

“I confirm that at the moment my primary focus is to win my seat of Falelatai and Samatau. I also confirm that I will be an HRPP candidate and I am running as the duly elected deputy leader of HRPP.”

He said it is bad habit to underestimate opposing electoral candidates and it would be “presumptuous” to talk about other things than winning the March poll.

When asked whether a win for HRPP would mean another term as Prime Minister, Tuilaepa told our November edition last year: “I cannot say that. “It is the party's caucus that will decide on the leadership issue.”