Whatever the agenda at the conference, it will be interesting to see how the Taiwan-China fissures among the Forum countries will affect participation at the meet and the outcome of the conference.

Dev Nadkarni
Chinese premier Wen Jiabao will make his first-ever official trip to the Pacific islands region some time in April. His trip coincides with a major conference of economic and trade ministers of China and each of the Pacific Islands Forum countries, including New Zealand and Australia, which he is to inaugurate.

The announcement of the conference is undoubtedly one of the most emphatic statements that China has made about its increasing interest in the region that has tended to be seen as a somewhat desultory effort to engage in individual island nations constructing a government building here and a stadium or swimming pool there. With this conference, it will address all the Pacific Islands Forum nations collectively.

Pro One-China policy Pacific islands governments like Fiji have welcomed this major event saying this demonstrates China's growing interest in the islands. While most islands governments' excitement at the world's fastest growing economy taking such important notice of their small economies is understandable, New Zealand has reacted to the announcement with caution. Australia is yet to make a comment.

At the time this issue went to press, a spokesperson for New Zealand's foreign affairs minister was quoted in the media as saying that they were invited to the conference but were trying to determine who would be involved and what were to be the outcomes of the conference.

The Chinese mission in New Zealand, according to media reports, was not able to advise on matters such as the agenda, who would be attending, or even when the conference was to be held. Not unexpectedly, comments from any of the governments recognising Taiwan were still forthcoming.

Whatever the agenda at the conference, it will be interesting to see how the Taiwan-China fissures among the Forum countries will affect participation at the meet and the outcome of the conference.

As the conference is aimed at getting all the trade and foreign affairs ministers of the Forum member nations around a table, China, if it is indeed the host of the conference, would definitely send invitations to all members.

Five of these have had trouble with the Asian giant over the past couple of years or so over the issue of hobnobbing with Taiwan and their recognition of the island (Republic of China as opposed to People's Republic of China which is China's appellation). China has always considered Taiwan an integral part of itself: something that has brought the deep fissures in the Taiwanese polity to the surface early this year-more on that a little later.

Once invited, would Kiribati, Nauru, the Solomon Islands, Marshall Islands, Palau and Tuvalu have any doubts over attending? And even if they did attend, as they are all too likely to, would there be any conditions linked to any of the outcomes of the conference? There could well be.

Where would a carrot-and-stick approach from the Asian economic powerhouse with very clear geopolitical ambitions leave these five who have accepted little Taiwan's largesse?

China has obviously planned this conference in great detail. It has been priming the region over the past 12-18 months with an increased involvement on several fronts.

In May last year, it invited the French Polynesian President to visit China. In June, Vanuatu's government made a public declaration of its One-China policy and in the following month, Vanuatu's police chief made a visit to China. The China-Taiwan issue caused much political turmoil in Vanuatu, not so long ago.

Fiji's health minister was chastised by his government for supporting Taiwan's bid at the World Health Organisation summit after China raised objections through diplomatic channels. China also expressed displeasure at Fiji hosting Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian. Fiji was hard put to impress upon China that it was only extending diplomatic courtesies.

Last year, the Chinese government also put French Polynesia among a few other islands nations on the approved list for Chinese tourists, raising the prospect of increased cash-rich tourist arrivals.

It has had an ongoing engagement in Samoa, funding and building almost all of the sports infrastructure for the South Pacific Games next year-a commitment of millions of dollars. Earlier this year, it expressed an interest to build the new Melanesian Spearhead Group secretariat in Port Vila.

Taiwan too, on its own scale, has stepped up its involvement in the region building government installations in Kiribati, Tuvalu, the Marshalls and Solomon Islands (where it is reported to be in talks to also build a campus that is to be linked to the University of the South Pacific).

But Taiwan's attention in the South Pacific has been greatly distracted, thanks to domestic developments early this year. Its premier Frank Hsieh led his entire cabinet to resign in January. The outgoing premier warned President Chen Shui-bian that his hard-line policies on China were not what most Taiwanese people wanted. Hsieh resigned accepting responsibility for the electoral defeat of the ruling Democratic Peoples Party (DPP) in December.

But he made it a point to also state clearly that he differed with Chen on his hard-line China policy. Chen's DPP has seen hard times in 2005, facing allegations of corruption and losing ground to the opposition Kuomintang Party which is avowedly pro-China and whose key members were invited to visit China while DPP members were overlooked. While the DPP favours an independent Taiwan, the Kuomintang Party aims at aligning closely with China.

With a weakened and distracted DPP leadership in Taiwan and capitalising on its greatly increased economic involvement in the South Pacific, the time could not be better than now for planning an economic and trade conference of this scale.

The emerging political situation in Taiwan in the weeks ahead (its next presidential polls are slated for 2008) may perhaps yield answers to the five Forum islands nations that recognise it, if they are wondering about attending the conference and worrying about what outcomes and conditions of compliance may be in store for them.

It would also be interesting to watch how Australia and New Zealand react to the conference as further details of an agenda and intended outcomes emerge.


Dev Nadkarni is Senior Editor and NZ Bureau Head, Islands Business magazine.