Islands Business - WE SAY: Melanesia emerging regional force

‘Once again, the focus here is Melanesia and Melanesian leaders. There is little doubt that the potential of their mineral wealth, their proximity to the world’s biggest growth engine—Asia—and their wantok solidarity has made them an emerging regional force to be reckoned with. It is time Melanesian leaders drove hard bargains for the driver’s seat as regards directing policies in the Pacific Islands region on the range of issues confronting it, whether geopolitical or economic’

It would be pleasantly surprising should anything substantial or significant in terms of policy material to the most pressing issues of the islands region is achieved at the end of this month’s 41st Pacific Islands Forum meeting.
For one, this year’s hardy annual, hosted by Vanuatu, will see at least two key players completely preoccupied by political developments in their own countries and will be too busy to apply their minds to policy matters in the midst of their own state of political flux.
Solomon Islands Prime Minister Derek Sikua has already sent in regrets for his inability to attend, owing to ongoing general elections in that country that coincide with the summit almost to the day.
Australia can hardly be expected to have any inputs on Pacific policy on its mind, now that its own elections are less than a month away.
Already, the incumbent prime minister Julia Gillard has made a faux pas of sorts by talking about possible offshore refugee processing centres in Timor Leste soon after replacing Kevin Rudd without consultations in her own circles nor with leaders of Timor Leste—something that has caused much consternation in both Australia and in the islands region. She also hinted at similar centres in Nauru.
None of this is likely to be followed up at the Forum summit because this is not the time to rock the policy boat with elections looming.
But feedback from islands leaders on the issue as well as several others including dealing with Fiji may prove to be invaluable in formulating Pacific related pre-election planks back in Canberra.
This would especially be the case since illegal immigration and the humanitarian problem of dealing with boat people is emerging to be one of the core election issues—the other major ones being the supertax on mining and firm policy frameworks in dealing with foreign investment in the country’s sensitive sectors.
While it is not certain how the discussions on dealing with Fiji will proceed, there will certainly be considerable attempts to find out the Melanesian leadership’s response to the developments in the run-up to the Forum—notably the “Engaging with the Pacific” summit hosted by Fiji last month that Melanesian leaders attended.
Those that did not—Australia, New Zealand and Samoa, among a few others—would certainly like to hear from leaders that attended and have publicly praised the proceedings in the media, notably Kiribati President Anote Tong and Tuvalu Prime Minister Apisai Ielemia. Papua New Guinea Prime Minister and the senior most Melanesian leader Sir Michael Somare also has been positive about the event.
It is likely that any pronouncements on Fiji will be influenced by the proceedings at the “Engaging with the Pacific” summit, especially because of the Fiji administration’s presentation of the 2014 roadmap. This month’s Forum will be another great opportunity for the leaders to chalk out a more engaging strategy for dealing with Fiji, different from the policy of isolation that has been followed so far and has gotten nowhere.
It will be up to the Melanesian leaders to drive this agenda and get Australia, New Zealand and the Polynesian islands nations to think afresh on a strategy for Fiji in light of last month’s meet in Fiji, as well as developments since the last Forum meet.
Whether the Melanesian leaders push this forcefully or not, it is unlikely they will get a buy-in from either Australia or New Zealand within the timeframe of the Forum summit, enough to be included in the communiqué at the end of it.
Even an indication of a consideration of a possible shift in policy would be an achievement.
If the Melanesian leaders mean business, they must follow up on the solidarity they showed by attending the Fiji hosted meet and bring about a change in policy direction in the Forum’s dealing with Fiji in the short to medium-term, even while its suspension from the Forum is operative. For nothing can ever be achieved without engagement and continuous communication.
One other prominent point for discussion during this summit would be the issue of West Papua’s independence.
It would be interesting to see how Vanuatu’s seemingly forceful espousal of this cause will go down with the rest of the Forum members, notably Australia, which has a whole slew of ongoing issues with Indonesia.
Once again, the focus here is Melanesia and Melanesian leaders. There is little doubt that the potential of their mineral wealth, their proximity to the world’s biggest growth engine—Asia—and their wantok solidarity has made them an emerging regional force to be reckoned with.
It is time Melanesian leaders drove hard bargains for the driver’s seat as regards directing policies in the Pacific Islands region on the range of issues confronting it, whether geopolitical or economic.