Prediction? Less frequent cyclones but more severe

Jason Brown



The headline was bold, stark. “Tubuai Ravagée.”
  Daily newspaper Les Nouvelles filled the top half of its front page with an aerial shot of the island in the south of French Polynesia, about eight kilometres across. Waves were estimated at between six to eight metres.
  Of the 1000 homes hit by Cyclone Oli, 600 were on Tubuai alone. Two weeks after the cyclone, hundreds were still homeless, with presidential spokesman Tevaitea Salmon saying estimates put damages to homes and infrastructure at US$70 million.
  Ravaged, indeed.
  “The Government with some other people have prepared some public structures to take care of people who have lost their houses, like sports structures or school structures,” Salmon told Radio New Zealand International.
  One man, 40, was swept to his death by waves smashing ashore. He was one of at least five deaths, reported across the three countries.
  In American Samoa, a maintenance worker was reported killed after falling from a three storey building while tying down the roof.
  An 11-year-old boy told residents that he was walking along the road when he saw the man fall to his death.
  It was tiny Tokelau, however, suffered the heaviest loss with three deaths reported.
  Seven young men were heading out to unload a ship at Atafu when large waves in lashing rain flipped their barge. Four managed to swim to safety but three drowned.
  Atafu councillor Faipule Kuresa Nasau said as a small island, “we have got to be respectful of the sea. We have lost three resilient young men. While we convey our deep condolences and respect for the families, there are huge lessons learnt that we must address to avoid similar incidences and loss of lives in the future.”
 
  Heavy loss
  The loss was especially heavy for an atoll of just 500 people, of 1,200 in Tokelau, a New Zealand dependency.
  Four cyclones in barely two weeks saw damages in French Polynesia and Tonga. This follows the December cyclones in Melanesia, hitting Papua New Guinea and causing four deaths in Fiji.
  Updated projections from New Zealand’s National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NIWA) predict increased risk of cyclones east of the dateline, especially for the southern Cook Islands.
  About nine tropical cyclones hit the region during each cyclone season, from November to April.
  NIWA also predicts increased risk of cyclones for Solomon Islands.
  Right on cue, another cyclone formed north of Tonga but, fortunately, it died quickly.
  After four cyclones in two weeks, residents across Polynesia were focused on grieving for the dead, clearing roads and cleaning up, including thousands of sheets of corrugated iron, wrapped around shredded trees.
  In the east, around 3,400 people had been evacuated from foreshores of Tahiti and Moorea.
  One man was reported as seriously injured, also falling from a roof.
  Across the colonial border from French Polynesia, Aitutaki was counting the costs of Cyclone Pat.
  First flights in were shocked at the debris trails streaming from smashed buildings on one of the region’s most legendary atolls.
  “Pretty humbling,” was how New Zealand squadron leader Kavae Tamariki described initial impressions of the devastation.
  Flying in with an aid team in an RNZAF Hercules, Tamariki said he was “amazed that no one got hurt when you see the amount of debris lying around”.
  “Life will never be the same again,” said Atawhai Teaukura.
  She watched as trees were “torn apart” and houses flattened. Early estimates were put at US$7 million, including wharf sheds reduced to a pile of tin.
  Outside of human and infrastructure costs, farmers surveyed ruined crops.
  Heavy, water-heavy trunks mean banana trees are first to fall over in a tropical cyclone. Even a strong gust or squall can rip the short, stumpy banana roots out of the ground.
 
  Double whammy
  In a cyclone, leaves are lashed, bunches busted apart, fruit scattered and scarred.
  Double whammy: a loss of income for the farmer, and for shops and tourism operators, the extra cost of importing bananas from other islands, or South America.
  Further to the west, details were hard to come by from Tonga, hit by Rene, a category four cyclone.
  Melino Maka, from the Tongan Advisory Council in New Zealand, expressed frustration at the lack of response to damage inquiries.
  “Breadfruit is the staple diet, and the breadfruit is all gone. The next one is the banana and other species similar to bananas that are used by local people for their every day diet. What we wanted to do is get a bit more detailed information from Tonga to see what area in terms of food, so we can target it.”
  Tonga is notoriously uncommunicative to the outside world, with government websites warning people overseas not to expect answers to email, phone or fax.
  That attitude may cost Tonga dearly in future, with the Australia Bureau of Meteorology joining predictions that cyclones would become less frequent—but much more severe.