Last year’s events to shape 2010

Dev Nadkarni




It’s January, and like the mythical Janus who looked at the past and future with his two faces, and after whom the month is named, it is time to look at how the events of last year will shape this year in our corner of the planet.
As the year begins, the Copenhagen fallout will be discussed threadbare as Pacific Islands nations debate the document brought back home by their representatives at the summit. A deep feeling of despondency is running through the leadership, particularly of the most affected islands nations—Tuvalu and Kiribati.
As the rest of the world prepares for the next summit in Mexico sometime later this year in a bid to build on the less than modest achievements at Copenhagen, their problems would have gotten a little worse and their morale lower. It is time they band together with other similarly affected nations and help from committed, global NGOs to form an alliance to coherently and effectively push the all important agenda of their survival, irrespective of scientific rhetoric and economic polemics before Mexico.
The surge in consumer spending in the run-up to Christmas at least in New Zealand last month has been better than the corresponding period in 2008. That, combined with surveys that reflect optimism in most sections of the public, have led economic forecasters to believe that sentiment is on the way up—and that is an essential ingredient in getting people to spend and stimulate the economy.
Across the Tasman, it has been accepted for several months now that Australia is out of the recession and the economy is on a path of swift recovery. This is excellent news for particularly the South Pacific Islands region because New Zealand and Australia are the main source markets for tourism. Arrivals from these two markets had declined markedly last year.
Much of the remittances into the islands—for most of them their largest single revenue earner—come from islanders living in these two countries. These figures too had shown considerable decline last year, particularly in Samoa and Tonga, affecting their economies in no small way.
The flow-on effects of the economies in New Zealand and Australia bouncing back will be felt most positively by the tourism sector in Samoa, Vanuatu, Fiji and the Cook Islands, while remittances will improve for Tonga—an important boost as nearly 40 percent of its GDP comes from it.
A sudden increase in flights from Australia, New Zealand, the US and Asia over the past few months that will continue progressively this year will further enhance the push factor for tourism. Hitherto unheard of initiatives like Air New Zealand planning to introduce flights connecting Sydney and Rarotonga are encouraging.
2010 presents a huge opportunity for the islands to build on the tourism potential with the opening of the Shanghai Expo in May, where the Pacific Islands have the third biggest pavilion and a chance to showcase their individual island paradises over the six months that the exhibition will remain open and which millions of people from all over the world are expected to visit. There is a real potential to change the face of Pacific Island tourism at this event.
Politically, Fiji will still be the focal point, though there is strong reason to believe that there will be a change in the attitudes of New Zealand and Australia toward it, which in turn, will bring about a softening in the international community’s stand as well. In the run-up to Christmas, New Zealand Prime Minister John Key is reported to have said he was planning to engage with Fiji and that he would be writing to Commodore Bainimarama soon. There is an obvious realisation that the isolationist tack has not worked thus far and is unlikely to work in the future. Fiji is too important to be left languishing, much less ignored, and a peaceful and rational resolution to its problems is in everybody’s interest.
Meanwhile, Chinese interest and investment in Fiji will continue to rise and the country’s tourism industry will benefit most from the virtual scramble of airlines to introduce increased services despite doomsayers repeatedly predicting grim forebodings for the country.
Samoa’s energies will be spent in rehabilitation and rebuilding and two of its most popular upmarket resorts will reopen in the first quarter of this year to increased tourist arrivals. The construction of two other fairly large hotel properties will also boost the local economy while beach fale tourism will slowly limp back to its optimal levels.
Neighbouring American Samoa will, however, take longer to recover with no prospect of increased tourist numbers because of a lack of infrastructure and direct flights and the destructive effect of the September tsunami on whatever little tourist infrastructure that exists.
Perhaps the most interesting political developments this year will happen in Tonga when the kingdom will hold its general election in the latter half. Under the suggested reform, the King and nobles would, for the first time in history, have a reduced role than ever before. But there are a few vital issues regarding the format of the elections and constituencies that will have to be ironed out in the lead up to the elections. While these are unlikely to be showstopper, they will not be without fireworks.
Meanwhile, the other main issue that will preoccupy Tongans is the final outcomes of the investigation into the Ashika disaster. The country will make modest gains on the tourism front as it steps up its promotion projecting Ha’apai as a tourist destination—there is already one big tourism accommodation project under way there. Over in Melanesia, Papua New Guinea’s mineral, petrochemical and natural gas boom will continue unabated though there is unfortunately no mechanism that is evident that guarantees the proceeds of the new found wealth to trickle down to the communities at the grassroots level.
Widespread corruption, crime and a worsening human rights record will continue to undermine the country’s impressive and rapid strides in gainfully leveraging its natural resources.
The Solomon Islands will continue improving its standing in the league of Pacific Islands nations with its newfound relative political stability, economic progress and serious attempts at boosting tourism and aviation.
Vanuatu will continue to build on its success as a tourist destination and build on its nascent revenue channel of remittances from seasonal worker schemes in New Zealand. But a proclivity of unstable politics, which has dogged the nation for years, could undermine some of the gains it has made in recent years. 
With the United States armed forces already announcing delays to the relocation of their base from Okinawa to Guam—touted as the largest single infrastructure project in the region at US$15 billion spread across about seven years—Guam, FSM and the Marshall Islands will have to wait longer for the flow on effects of the activity.
Geopolitically, the region will probably see and end to the much criticised chequebook diplomacy and the tug of war for influence in the Pacific between Taiwan and China, with the two having greatly patched up differences in the past twelve months on matters as wide ranging as trade, tourism, the movement of people, diplomacy and international involvement. The two are increasingly sharing their perspectives and exchanging notes—and this will be to the benefit of better governance in the Pacific Islands.
Aviation, tourism, a thaw of sorts in Fiji’s relationship with the Western world, impressive progress in the exploitation of natural resources in Melanesia along with the acceptance by the UN of new exclusive economic zone/ continental shelf boundaries for several islands and the possibility of a new democratic dawn in Tonga will be the highlights of this year.
The lowlights? The region having suffered more than its fair share of natural and manmade disasters last year, it is hoped that it will be spared the deleterious effects of El Nino—and that there will be no utterly avoidable manmade disasters in the sea, air and land.