Drought, promise of jobs and income

Dr. Satish Chand



Welcome 2010! It is time to polish the cryStal ball and gaze into what is in store for us all this year.
I will focus here on a few issues that are likely to have an impact on the lives and livelihoods of the majority of Pacific Islanders. Climate change, impact of the ongoing resource boom in PNG, and the slow global recovery are all in the offing.
A dry 2010?
Drought, at least in the early half of 2010, is a certainty. Meteorological services are predicting an El Nino. This will reduce rainfall in much of the Pacific Islands region and affect the lives of many.
The lessons from the drought of 1997 in much of Papua New Guinea could come in handy. Many communities then ran low on drinking water. Diarrhoea took its toll as people drank contaminated water. And frost and fires did their bits in destroying the crops and the livelihoods of many. Many gardens in the Highlands of PNG were left barren, leaving the families to fetch for themselves. At its peak, the drought forced some 40 percent of the rural population to survive on food foraged from the forests.
The governments of Australia and PNG then joined hands in airlifting emergency food supplies to the worst affected areas. And when the rain ultimately arrived, many communities ran short of planting material. Have we learnt from the lessons of the past? 2010 may test our preparedness for this exam. We must learn to live better with drought and other harsh weather conditions. Evidence of climate change is hard to deny. And human contribution to this change is even harder to dispute.
Even if Copenhagen delivers on the many promises, the benefits of this are likely to materialise in the distant future. Islanders are likely to face the brunt of the effects of climate change. This is unfair since they have contributed the least to the warming of the planet. But life is not fair. Families and governments of the region must prepare for a dry 2010. Forewarning the population of the impending drought has to begin early.
We must invest in more drought resistant food crops. Some varieties of cassava, taro, yams, and spinach are resilient to droughts. Forests and fish stocks have always been the fall back during hard times. These need to be conserved. It is not just good practice but necessary for survival.
Those of us who practiced some restraint on the excesses of the festive season—possibly via an alcohol and kava free (dry) Christmas—could now have some much needed savings. The reality is that many of us, and those most vulnerable to an adverse weather shocks, have little to save. But any cash stowed away for the ‘dry day’ could come in handy in 2010.
Tapping into the benefits
of a resource boom in PNG
The New Year has some promise too. Amongst the brightest ray of hope is the ongoing resource boom in PNG. The current construction boom in PNG, the largest economy by far in the region, has much life left in it. As such, it has the potential to generate jobs for those in and beyond PNG.
An immediate challenge for PNG is to transform its unskilled workers into skilled person power—a process that requires some lead-time. And disappointingly, little effort has to-date been placed in training the workforce for jobs likely to be created in the future.
PNG is home to 6.5 million of the 10 million people who live within the Pacific Islands region. And PNG is home to people from all over the Pacific. Consequently, a resource boom in PNG has the potential to raise income and employment in the region as a whole.
Fiji, Kiribati, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu could all benefit by exporting skilled workers and specialist services to PNG. The region as a whole is already benefitting from investments emanating out of PNG.
There is an opportunity to free mobility of skilled workers within the region. As an example, the requirements for work permits for skilled workers could be lifted. As is, Melanesians allow visa-free travel amongst themselves. Lifting work visas would be a natural step forward. And freeing up the need for business visas would be progressed towards deepening regional integration. The Pacific Islands Forum and the MSG secretariats can initiate such a process.
Remittance flows and
tourism demand to the rescue?
Remittance income in Tonga equates to some 40 percent of GDP; one of the highest, if not the highest, amongst nations. Several families within the islands are dependent for nearly all of their cash needs on remittances from their immediate kin working abroad. And many of the smaller and more isolated Pacific islands nations will continue to rely on and reap the rewards of remittances.
The remittance picture for the region remains mixed, however. Fortunately for many remittance-dependent families, unemployment in Australia remains at a record low. In contrast, unemployment rates in Canada and New Zealand are nudging towards double digits while that in the USA has climbed to 10 percent. More worrying still, the figures for the latter group of nations are unlikely to recede in 2010.
Tourists continue to flock to Fiji, Samoa, and Vanuatu. Given that the majority of these originate from Australia and the fact that the Australian dollar has been strengthening against most of the islands currencies, there is much optimism for further expansion in the sector. Natural disasters such as the recent tsunami in Samoa and the past cyclone in Fiji have dampened arrivals, but their effects are likely to be temporary.
Islands governments can give tourism a boost by deregulating their aviation and communications sectors. Airfares and telecommunications costs in Fiji, PNG, Samoa, and Tonga have plummeted following the opening up of their markets to competition.
In sum, 2010 arrives with risks of a drought and a promise of jobs and income as the regional and global economy continues to grow. Let us be ready for the challenges of 2010 and the opportunities on offer.

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