Dr Satish Chand

Leaders of the 16-nation Pacific Islands Forum will be meeting in Cairns in the first week of August. 
A notable absence will be Commodore Frank Bainimarama, the Prime Minister of Fiji.  Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, as the host of this 38th annual get-together of the most powerful men in the Pacific Islands region, will chair this meeting. And if the news from the Coconut Wireless is any guide, PM Rudd will have his hands full this time.

Fissures on Fiji
Fiji’s expulsion from the Forum is likely to see some serious fissures amongst the leaders. To-date, meetings of Forum Leaders have resolved issues through consensus. 
The ‘Pacific Way’, credit to the late Ratu Sir Kamisese Mara for its coinage, has had a long and sustained success.
Divisions have developed in many previous meetings, but some ‘heavy lifting by the big boys’ quickly sealed any emerging cracks. The photo-shoots and media briefings post-Forum have consistently displayed smiley faces.
Will the ‘Pacific Way’ survive this time? Its success rests on PM Rudd’s diplomatic skills.
Rudd is a seasoned diplomat. He has comes to the meeting with a string of diplomatic successes on the international front. The near neighbours, however, have escaped the PM’s attention during much of his tenure.
Just prior to taking up the top job, he had made some promising pronouncements. Pacific Partnership for Development was one of the many promises on dealing with the island neighbours. Evidence of progress in engaging with Pacific governments by the Rudd government, however, is mixed at best.

Let us not forget
The Forum is very much a product of Mara’s regional clout. Mara’s mana was central to gelling islands leaders towards the formation of the South Pacific Forum, the predecessor to the current Pacific Islands Forum. 
Mara had strong support from his islands colleagues and was equally instrumental in getting both Australia and New Zealand admitted into the Forum.  And the recent treatment given to Fiji by his own very creation would surely have disturbed the man. 
Fiji’s suspension has both deepened the divide amongst the leaders and widened the gap between the Melanesians on one hand, and Australia, New Zealand, Niue and Samoa on the other. 
The Micronesians, while less vocal on Fiji, have expressed their sympathies with the Melanesians. Tonga, the exception amongst the Polynesians, is firmly behind the Commodore.
And Grand Chief Somare of PNG and the ‘big-man’ of Melanesia has put his weight behind the demands of MSG for the lifting of the suspension against Fiji.
And let us not forget that Melanesia is the closest neighbour to Australia. It is the most populous of the Pacific sub-regions. And development challenges have been the most intractable in this very region. It is also the region with the richest of resources.

Sweet-chillies, hot ice-cream,
and Bainimarama-diplomacy
A retired Australian diplomat pointed out to me recently that the Bainimarama-diplomacy is an oxymoron. Don’t know the meaning of oxymoron? You are not alone! It is the pairing of words with opposite meanings; sweet-chillies and hot ice-cream are examples. 
Bainimarama-diplomacy is not an oxymoron. The PM, through his persuasiveness, convinced his colleagues at last month’s Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) meeting in Port Vila that he deserved their support.
Not just support he got, but his colleagues agreed to put the Commodore’s case to the Cairns meeting of the Pacific Islands Forum.
The hardliners within the Forum have been busy trying to strengthen their case for Fiji’s continued expulsion.
The meeting in Cairns is poised to generate some fireworks. Repairing the cracks will demand the full attention and diplomatic tact of PM Rudd who is both the host and chair of this meeting. 
This meeting could also put the ‘Pacific Way’ to the test. Rudd has the skills to succeed.  The question will be if he has done enough preparation beforehand; and if he has the patience and perseverance to pass.
And bribing and/or bullying by him will float lime a lead balloon. The PM must have done his homework. He then must listen, reason and consolidate. The Forum’s fate rests on Rudd’s success.

No alternative
but to re-engage Fiji
Australia and New Zealand must re-engage with the military regime in Fiji. 
Diplomacy and dialogue, difficult as they may turn out to be, must be given a chance.
PM Bainimarama must be re-engaged, if only it helps Fiji out of a rut of coups.  The Commodore and the Forum leadership have this objective in common. Why not start from this common ground and work up to the more difficult issues? 
And yes, it is high time Fiji lifted those media censorship laws. The censorship is a blockade to international re-engagement. It is also the reason for the booming enterprise in misinformation on Fiji.
Bainimarama’s absence from the Forum Leaders meeting at Cairns is unhelpful and possibly counter-productive. Isolating Fiji from the Forum is equivalent to isolating the rest of the Forum from Fiji. I cannot see much point in the above.
In the words of Dr Peter McCawley, a wise old colleague and former Dean of the Asian Development Bank Institute in Tokyo, contemporary Fiji is a test of Australia’s regional diplomacy. 
PM Rudd is sitting this very test this month. He has the skills to pass. The question is whether he has prepared enough and, will be patient and persistent enough to make the mark. 
We wish him luck!