But all’s not well for France’s supporters

Nic Maclellan

 

In New Caledonia, voters went to the polls on May 10 to elect representatives to the Congress and three provincial Assemblies in the North, South and Loyalty Islands.
This year’s elections are particularly important. In the coming months, New Caledonia’s Congress will decide on the timetable to transfer more administrative and legislative powers from Paris to Noumea—including secondary education, which will shift control of a huge budget and staff.
The incoming congress will also decide whether to proceed to a referendum on independence after 2014, or whether to negotiate a further transitional agreement to follow the 1998 Noumea Accord.
Every five years, voters choose 76 members for the three Provincial Assemblies. A proportion of these elected representatives make up the 54-member national congress. Seats in the 11-member multi-party government are allocated according to the strength of the parties in the congress.
On the surface, these elections were a victory for the anti-independence forces. The new congress has 31 members of anti-independence parties and only 23 from pro-independence parties. The conservative party Rassemblement UMP (RUMP), with 13 seats, is the largest party in the new Congress.
But behind these bald figures, all is not well for the supporters of France in the South Pacific.

Disunity in the anti-independence camp
The election campaign was marked by a significant split amongst the anti-independence parties.
In recent years, the once dominant Rassemblement UMP (RUMP) has fractured into a number of smaller, competing groups. At the previous elections in 2004, the RUMP was overshadowed by a new party Avenir Ensemble (AE), created by businessman Didier Leroux and three RUMP dissidents, Marie-Noelle Themereau, Harold Martin and Philippe Gomes. Themereau (2004-07) and then Martin (2007-09) served as President of New Caledonia, while Gomes was President of the Southern Province.
But this “Gang of Four” fell out in 2008, with Gomes and Themereau leaving Avenir to form a new party, Calédonie Ensemble (CE). The parting of ways was bitter.
In an interview at the time of the split, Didier Leroux bluntly told Islands Business: “I believe that Philippe Gomes is dangerous…I think he is a danger for New Caledonia.”
Meanwhile, the grand old man of the settler community Jacques Lafleur had deserted RUMP to form his own party, Rassemblement pour la Calédonie (RPC).
Over the last decade, Lafleur has retired from politics several times, but entered the contest again on May 10.
During the election campaign, there was fierce competition between these groups to win the support of anti-independence voters. Smaller parties like the extremist National Front, which opposes the Noumea Accord, fell by the wayside and failed to win any seats.
The final tally in the new congress is RUMP (13), CE (10), AE (6) and RPC (2). As no two of these parties can build a majority in the 54-seat congress, the competing anti-independence leaders are being forced into an uneasy alliance to carve up the three most powerful positions (President of the Southern Province; speaker of the Congress and President of the Government).
The other option is to create an even more interesting coalition with the pro-independence parties who make up the FLNKS independence movement.

Surge for the independence movement
Overall, the pro-independence parties increased their representation compared to the last elections in 2004.
The independence vote is always strongest in the North and Loyalty Islands, where most Kanaks live. The anti-independence parties were largely irrelevant outside the Southern Province, winning only two of 22 seats in the Northern Assembly and, for the first time, losing all their seats in the Loyalty Islands.
For the 2004 elections, so many pro-independence parties competed in the South that none of them gained enough votes to reach the five per cent representation threshold. After five years without FLNKS representation in the Southern Assembly, there were complex negotiations in the months leading up to the 2009 elections to form a united FLNKS list in the south. The resulting coalition, led by long-time independence leader Roch Wamytan, was successful winning nine per cent of the vote and four seats in the Assembly.
In the North and Loyalty Islands, there was a tussle between Union Calédonienne and Palika (the Party of Kanak Liberation running as UNI-FLNKS). The outcome was a small drop in votes for Palika but eight seats each in the congress.
These FLNKS parties also had to compete with the new pro-independence Parti Travailliste (Labour Party), which ran separate tickets in all three provinces. The PT, led by unionist turned businessman Louis Kotra Uregei, was formed in November 2007 with support from the USTKE trade union confederation. First time out, the PT has done well in the Kanak-dominated areas, winning 20 percent of the vote (2 seats) in the Loyalty Islands Assembly and 12 percent (3 seats) in the Northern Assembly.
However, with a low vote in the South, the PT will only have three seats in the national congress (not enough to earn representation in the government).
At a time of financial crisis, the core issues of housing, transport and prices were key issues in the campaign. With many young unemployed, there will be ongoing debate over protecting local employment against ongoing immigration from France.
But the looming issue is New Caledonia’s political status. Under the Noumea Accord, the congress can decide to hold a referendum on self-determination after 2014.
FLNKS leaders like Roch Wamytan believe the referendum must be held as scheduled. Others foresee a compromise, with CE’s Philippe Gomes arguing that New Caledonia should avoid a referendum by negotiating a new pact like the Noumea Accord.
RPC’s Lafleur has even proposed a 50-year pact, a form of free association with France controlling defence, foreign policy, police and judiciary.
The tussle over New Caledonia’s political future will continue, as the incoming members of the congress choose their new government in mid-June and prepare for the visit of French President Nicolas Sarkozy in July.