Millions of dollars in trade assistance hang in the balance as Fiji faces suspension from the region’s powerful bloc, the Pacific Islands Forum.
In an unprecedented move and also an attempt to save its reputation, some critics say Pacific leaders who met late last month gave Fiji coup leader and currently interim prime minister Commodore Frank Bainimarama an ultimatum: announce by May 1 (2009), an election date to be held before the end of 2009 or face suspension from the Forum.
If that does not happen, the coup stricken island nation stands to lose all the programmes including finance and technical assistance it currently enjoys from the regional body.
Extent of loss: Though the extent of the loss has yet to be fully explained as the magazine went to print, initial assessments speak of huge losses for Fiji.
Almost immediately, it will not be able to access useful and strategic advices and expertise from the Forum Secretariat’s trade and governance division.
This will almost be a fatal blow to Fiji, given that apart from Papua New Guinea, it is the only other Pacific islands nation that has a well developed exporting industry.
Trade expertise: In addition to PICTA, the Pacific Islands Countries Trade Agreement between 14 out of the 16 members of the Forum (Australia and New Zealand excluded), the islands countries are still in the middle of negotiating a very crucial trade and economic assistance package with the European Union (EU).
Islands countries need to wrap up and sign an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU by the end of the year, and the Forum Secretariat through its director of the trade division Dr Roman Grynberg, whose contract with the Forum Secretariat is being conveniently not extended, and trade negotiation expert Dr Jim Gosselin had been the leading advisers. Fiji will lose that invaluable and almost irreplaceable guidance once suspended.
The Forum Secretariat also dispenses on behalf of the EU millions of dollars each year for its regional related projects. A suspension will also affect Fiji’s access to such funds.
The island nation will also need to start negotiations and finalise a trade agreement with its two biggest trade partners—Australia and New Zealand—in a pact now commonly referred to as PACER-Plus (see story on pages 34 & 35).
This is expected to replace the current economic trade package known as SPARTECA (South Pacific Trade and Economic Cooperation Agreement) that links small Forum member nations with Australia and New Zealand.
Fiji relies on SPARTECA for duty concessions on its garment exports to the two bigger nations.
PACER-Plus is to replace that and as with the EPA negotiations, Fiji if suspended will be unable to access the services of Grynberg, Gosselin and other experts in the Forum Secretariat’s trade unit.
More than two years ago, Fiji could have probably survived on its own when it comes to trade negotiations.
It had capable trade experts in the likes of former foreign minister Kaliopate Tavola and former foreign secretary now High Court judge, Isikeli Mataitoga.
The ministry has also lost other capable senior officials like Amena Yauvoli, Jone Draunimasi and Sili Lomalagi.
At stake too will be Fiji’s involvement in other Forum related activities in important industries like aviation, education, energy, environment, finance and fisheries.
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What Fiji will lose if suspended:
• All the programmes including finance and technical assistance it currently enjoys from the Forum.
• Won't able to access useful and strategic advices from the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat’s trade and governance division—a fatal blow to Fiji, given that apart from Papua New Guinea, it is the only other Pacific Islands nation that has a well developed exporting industry.
• Could lose invaluable trade advice as it works towards wrapping up and signing an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU by the end of the year.
• The Forum Secretariat also dispenses on behalf of the EU millions of dollars each year for regional related projects. A suspension will affect Fiji’s access to such funds.
• The island nation will also need to start negotiations and finalise a trade agreement with its two biggest trade partners—Australia and New Zealand—in a pact now commonly referred to as PACER. If suspended it will be unable to access the services of Grynberg, Gosselin and other experts in the Secretariat’s trade unit.
• At stake too will be its involvement in other Forum related activities in important industries like aviation, education, energy, environment, finance and fisheries. Some of these initiatives include capacity building in areas like customs cooperation and streamlining quarantine requirements, activities that are crucial to facilitating trade and exports.
• In doubt will be Fiji’s participation in PIASA and climate change adaptation works in agriculture and coastal protection under the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environmental Programme (SPREP).
• Fiji is also a beneficiary of a US$12 million programme on water management being funded jointly by the EU and the Global Environment Facility (GEF) of the World Bank and administered by the SOPAC. This could also be in doubt.
• Could lose being the hub of the Forum Secretariat’s proposed bulk oil purchasing initiative.
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In doubt: Some of these initiatives include capacity building in areas like customs cooperation and streamlining quarantine requirements, activities that are crucial to facilitating trade and exports.
In doubt now will be Fiji’s participation in PIASA, the Pacific Islands Air Services Agreement, and climate change adaptation works in agriculture and coastal protection under the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environmental Programme (SPREP).
This is dreadful since Fiji has been a player in shaping the region’s position to the very important negotiations for a new climate change treaty, which is due to be finalised in Copenhagen later in the year.
Fiji is also a beneficiary of a US$12 million programme on water management being funded jointly by the EU and the Global Environment Facility (GEF) of the World Bank.
It is being administered by the Fiji-based Secretariat of the Pacific Geoscience Commission (SOPAC).
With unstable oil prices in the world market, Fiji was suppose to be the hub of the Forum Secretariat’s proposed bulk oil purchasing initiative.
Oil will be stored in Fiji after being purchase from refineries in Singapore for distribution to other oil dependent islands of the Pacific.
If Fiji is suspended, the Forum may have to look for a new hub.
The same loss can be envisaged for the Forum’s important work on fisheries through the Forum Fisheries Agency (FFA) on its dwindling tuna stocks and the protection of its national interests in the various fisheries agreement the Pacific region is a party to.
Will Fiji’s suspension also affect its free trade agreement with its Melanesian neighbours who are members of the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG)?
Again like PNG, Fiji is the only other MSG member that is reaping the most benefit from the trade pact.
Stood by decision: Past MSG chair and prime minister of PNG Sir Michael Somare was not asked specifically on the implication to the MSG of Fiji’s suspension from the Forum.
He did say that his country stood by the Forum decision.
That decision was taken after almost four hours of talks amongst 14 leaders of the Pacific Islands Forum in Port Moresby on January 27.
The one day summit was convened specifically to look at the Fiji situation after its military leader Bainimarama refused to attend its annual Forum meeting held in Niue in August 2008.
He opted out of the PNG summit as well, citing his involvement in rehabilitation work following devastating floods in several towns and settlements in Fiji’s northern and western regions.
Instead, he sent his attorney-general Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum to PNG as his envoy.
Speaking to journalists at the end of the summit held inside the luxurious Crowne Plaza Hotel in downtown Port Moresby, Forum chair Toke Talagi said leaders wanted Bainimarama to:
• Nominate an election date by May 1, 2009;
• Hold elections by the end of December 2009; and
• Specify an election timetable and preparation by May 1, 2009.
Fiji, Talagi said, must demonstrate it was committed to the “restoration of parliamentary democracy”.
This, Forum leaders said, Fiji should do by providing an election timetable that has the concurrence of “all key political stakeholders”.
Any consensus on the timetable the Pacific leaders pointed out must be reached “through a genuine, open, inclusive dialogue without threats, preconditions, ultimatums or pre-determined outcomes.”
A challenge many feel will be another demand of the Pacific leaders, that any reforms suggested by such political dialogues in Fiji ought to be in line with the country’s “constitution and laws”.
This is a requirement the Forum had never moved away from since its meeting in Tonga in 2007.
It insisted that changes as advocated by Bainimarama on the island’s electoral laws for example should not be introduced outside the perimeter of the country’s supreme law.
The leaders also called for greater commitment from the Fijian authorities on preparations for elections, stating that such preparations should be “serious and credible”.
This would include allocating “necessary resources” to the Office of the Supervisor of Elections in Fiji, and “prompt preparation” of the electoral roll.
As for Bainimarama and his men and women of the Fiji Military Forces, the Forum leaders want a “renewed commitment” that they will “withdraw from civilian politics following such election, return to the barracks and submit to the authority of the elected civilian government in accordance with the constitution.”
They also said that in calling for the holding of elections before the end of 2009, Forum member countries stand ready to “positively consider” financial and technical assistance for the regime’s proposed political forum of all political parties.
Targeted measures: Failure by Bainimarama and his regime to adhere to these demands, Talagi said the Forum would activate the “targeted measures” provisions of its Biketawa Declaration that would include:
• Suspension of participation by the Leader, Ministers and officials of the Fiji interim Government in all Forum meetings and events; and
• Ineligibility of the Fiji interim government to benefit from Forum regional cooperation initiatives and new financial and technical assistance, other than assistance toward the restoration of democracy.
These measures, said Talagi, would remain until a democratically elected government is restored in the island nation.
For Niue’s premier, their decision was mainly all about trust.
“The principal issue we have raised in our discussions is that there must be some degree of trust on our part and a degree of trying to engage and continue to engage, to ensure that we achieve our collective goal and the goal that the interim prime minister has also indicated to us in that regard to holding elections as soon as possible,” said the chair of the Forum.
In his initial response to the Forum ultimatum and after a quick telephone conversation with his prime minister in Fiji, Sayed-Khaiyum questioned the legality of using the Biketawa Declaration as the basis for suspension.
“If anybody has a close read of the Biketawa Declaration in paragraph 2(iv), it talks about when there is a crisis,” Sayed-Khaiyum told reporters in Port Moresby.
“There is no crisis in Fiji at the moment, you have a government that’s in place, you have a government in place that’s been held to be legally and validly appointed by his Excellency our President, it’s a three-member panel of the high court and there is an appeal process in place, so we do not understand what the crisis is.”
When asked by this magazine whether Fiji’s “crisis” was the absence of democracy, Sayed-Khaiyum disagreed.
“You need to read the wording of it as opposed to conjecture to what people mean by it. And when you look at it, it talks about ‘the Forum must constructively address difficult and sensitive issue including underlying tensions and conflicts (ethnic tensions), socio economic disparities, lack of good governance, land disputes and erosion of cultural values, none of those address specifically what you are talking about.”
Fiji’s attorney-general was also very clearly unhappy with the demands for an election timetable.
“Setting of timetables seemed to be the obsession of some leaders,” he quipped.
During his more than 60 minutes of discussions with the leaders behind closed doors, Bainimarama’s envoy said Australia’s Kevin Rudd was more interested in the regime’s treatment of the Fiji Times newspaper publisher Rex Gardiner, who was deported to Australia on January 26.
New Zealand Prime Minister John Key, on the other hand, was patronising in his attitude, claimed Sayed-Khaiyum when he told the Fijian lawyer that he ought to be tried in court for his involvement in Bainimarama’s regime.
“The New Zealand Prime Minister put to me the proposition which was quiet speculative. “He said to me ‘what if you have these electoral reforms, then have elections under the new electoral reforms and then you have a government that is in place, then the military doesn’t like the government and overthrows the government?’
“I said ‘the military won’t do that because the military is also for electoral reform and should you have a government that is elected under a system that offers equal suffrage and is truly democratic, then nobody in Fiji will have a problem with that.’
“He then said to me, ‘no I want to know whether you will be part of that government.’ “And I said to him ‘I didn’t know that I was under trial,’ he then said ‘you should be.’ “That’s when I said to the Forum chair, ‘this is obviously very personal or are we going to discuss matters pertaining to Fiji.”
In deciding to slap Bainimarama with an ultimatum, the Pacific Islands Forum wants to be viewed as a force that should be reckoned with.
Will that force the military strongman to eat humble pie and announce an election date before the deadline of May 1?
This is very unlikely, given his very dim view of the Forum and all that it stands for.
Interestingly, as his envoy and attorney-general was travelling to Port Moresby, Bainimarama told a military parade in Suva that he alone would make the decision of when elections would be held in Fiji. It could be held in five years or even 10 years, he reportedly told his soldiers.
Most likely he would ignore the Forum ultimatum and proceed with his own yet to be publicly announced timeline of changing the electoral laws, proceeded with the 12 to 15 months preparation for elections.
In the lead-up to the Port Moresby Special Forum, Bainimarama had shown his aversion to advice that is contrary to his.
A day before accompanying Sayed-Khaiyum to PNG, Ratu Isoa Gavidi, the permanent secretary for foreign affairs resigned.
Aversion to advice: Bainimarama was reportedly angered by Gavidi’s remarks on Fiji Television in which he said that he had hoped the Fiji Prime Minister would attend the PNG meeting.
The military commander had brought Gavidi back from retirement and he had only been serving as foreign secretary for four months.
His high commissioner based in Port Moresby, Ratu Isoa Tikoca, was also being recalled to Suva.
Bainimarama was said to be unimpressed when Tikoca turned up in Suva a few days before the PNG summit with a personal message from Somare.
“You take instructions from me and no other,” the Fiji PM reportedly told his senior diplomat.
As we went to press, Tikoca was back in the Fiji chancery in Port Moresby. But Fiji Government sources said the former army reservist with the rank of lieutenant colonel would be returning home.
Several Melanesian diplomats at the Port Moresby summit told this magazine that Tikoca’s recall to Suva was an ‘unpleasant decision by Bainimarama”.
Tikoca, they said, is a true friend of Melanesia and a sterling ambassador for his country. He is also accredited to the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu.
By their decision on January 27, leaders of the Pacific put up a united front.
In threatening Fiji with a suspension, Talagi said this was the unanimous decision of all leaders who attended the PNG summit.
But critics wondered whether the solidarity would remain once Fiji ignores the Forum demands and the deadline of May 1, passes.
These critics feel the impact of Fiji’s suspension would be felt most by its smaller neighbours, Tuvalu and Kiribati especially.
In fact, before leaders walked into their January 27 retreat, Kiribati president Anote Tong told Television New Zealand Pacific correspondent Barbara Dreaver that his country would resign its membership of the Forum the day Fiji is booted out.
Kiribati, he said, needed Fiji more than it needed the regional body.
“As you know, there are countries that are vulnerable to some measures that could be taken and I’m not talking just about Fiji,” said Talagi when questioned about the matter.
“What I am assured about and pleased about is the fact that we have all agreed that we will support those two countries if Fiji decides to take punitive measures against them for whatever reason.
“I’m pleased to say that the Forum also discussed that issue and we all agreed that we will support them including Australia and New Zealand.”
Going into the one-day meeting, Forum member countries were showing anything but a semblance of unity.
Indeed if host Somare had his way, the meeting would not have gone ahead at all.
With Bainimarama deciding to stay at home to oversee flood rehabilitation works, PNG wanted to postpone the meeting to the early weeks of February.
His office even issued a statement to this effect. However, Somare was forced to renege on a postponement when Talagi, as the current Forum chair, insisted the meeting could not be deferred.
Several of the islands leaders had already begun their journey to Port Moresby, he said.
Sources also pointed out that out of the 15 leaders that Talagi consulted, 11 wanted the one-day meeting to go ahead.
Somare was therefore left to apologise to his colleagues when he delivered his opening remarks at the January 27 summit.
Copies of his remarks made available to the press showed a marked turnaround in PNG’s position towards Fiji.
Somare was basically pleading for Bainimarama’s case, agreeing that elections do not hold the solution for Fiji’s complex political ills.
“Like many of you, I have agonised over what the Forum actions should be and what the implications might be for the Fijian people,” Somare told Forum colleagues.
“Like many of you, I have had my share of frustrations at the seemingly lack of real progress towards undertaking practical steps towards restoration of parliamentary democracy in Fiji.
“And I know, that like many of you, I felt betrayed when Fiji was not able to be represented in Niue to brief us on how and when it could hold democratic elections.
“Since Niue, I have asked myself if it is worth continuing to extend a hand of friendship and lending my ear to the current leadership in Fiji.
“Should I give in to despair, wash my hands clean and do nothing?
“Should I allow myself to be consumed with bitterness over the rebuff in Niue and adopt a confrontational approach?
“If it were not for my own belief in the Pacific Way and the values of compassion and forgiveness, taught by the early missionaries from the Pacific Islands, I would have been tempted to respond in the affirmative to these two questions.”
Diplomatic sources say the two Melanesian nations of Solomon Islands and Vanuatu were firmly behind Somare on the Fiji situation.
At the post-summit press conference later that day, Somare was not a picture of a happy man.
Position clear: “I think we have made our position very clear that the Forum has agreed to take those steps and we will adhere to the Forum position,” was all he offered when asked about his take of the Forum ultimatum on Fiji.
Clearly, the giving of four months notice of the ultimatum was the compromise offered to appease Somare and his Melanesian supporters in the Forum.
Leaders like Key and Rudd were obviously worried about the credibility of the regional body and its possible disintegration if it is seen as being too soft on Bainimarama.
“We need to put some pressure on Bainimarama to honour his word he made a few years ago that he would in fact return the country to democracy,” Key told New Zealand journalists that accompanied him to the Port Moresby meeting.
“I don’t think the significance of this meeting is lost on any of the leaders I’ve spoken to. There’s a strong sense that this Forum needs to show leadership, that it needs to act and it needs to send a message,” Key said.
