Fiji’s destiny now depends on its political leaders after the Pacific Islands Forum Ministerial Contact Group revealed the country’s only hope lies within the proposed political dialogue forum.

Hours after the group met with Interim Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama and political leaders, which included Laisenia Qarase and Mahendra Chaudhry, Australia’s Foreign Minister Stephen Smith revealed the group’s disappointment that the March elections won’t be held as had been promised by Bainimarama.

“Ministers expressed disappointment that the Fiji Interim Government had confirmed it did not intend to hold elections by March 2009, in line with its previous commitment to Forum leaders,” a statement from the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat said.

Insulted and not disappointed is perhaps the better description of the ministers’ feelings, as Bainimarama again showed little respect for the Forum’s concern for Fiji.

The group comprised ministers from Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Tonga and Tuvalu.

Trying to be diplomatic as possible, Smith told a press conference that Fiji was likely to face the consequences, which was as suggested at the 2008 Niue Forum leaders meeting—suspension from the Forum.

That, however, can be avoided if Bainimarama and the political leaders agree to dialogue, to be organised by an independent international group. The Commonwealth has been suggested as the likely body to do this.

Bainimarama’s explanation to the group for the election delay was that the electoral reforms needed to be carried out first before an election.

While this requires amending the constitution, which can only be done through parliamentary process, Smith said the option could be entertained provided political leaders agree to the reforms.

Only option: However, this may not be a democratic process to leading the country back to democracy, but it is perhaps the only option under the current circumstances.

If we were to compare the round of talks to a boxing sparring match, Bainimarama would have already scored a point for having the Forum bow to his demand.

In the last visit, the ministerial contact group had maintained that the 1997 Constitution needed to be followed and if electoral reforms were to be carried out, a parliament needed to be in place first.

While Bainimarama has in the past agreed to having dialogue, the question remains is whether he would come to a compromise with the men he ousted—Qarase, Chaudhry, United General Party leader Mick Beddoes and National Federation Party secretary, Pramod Rae.

All these leaders have been strong critics of Bainimarama, who doesn’t take criticisms too well. On the other hand, if dialogue were to be held and a compromise reached, would Bainimarama commit to the resolutions?

Smith believes he should for the sake of the nation, and pointed out that countries who moved away from democracy tended to suffer socio-economically.

Fiji’s inflation rate is currently at 7.7 percent, with most sectors not showing any signs of improvement.

The new year, after the announcement of the 2009 Budget, will see the cost of living going higher due to major price increases of items ranging from phone handsets to foodstuff and clothes.

If Fiji is alienated from the international community, which it cannot afford at this stage, those who will suffer the full brunt would be its citizens, Smith says. But countries such as Papua New Guinea are optimistic there is a way out, with more talks and negotiations.

“While we are pushing for elections, it is also important to push for dialogue,” PNG Foreign Affairs Minister Samuel Abal says.

During the first ministerial group visit, the ministers said only political will was preventing Fiji from holding the elections by the end of March (2009).

Again, political will at this stage is the only saviour for Fiji as it faces a likely suspension from the Forum.

No country has ever been suspended from the Forum, and if Fiji does get suspended, it is not clear what exactly will be the cost to the nation.

Would it mean relocating the Forum Secretariat to another country? However, the final decision rests in the hands of the leaders when they converge in Papua New Guinea later this month for a special meeting.

The ministerial group’s report after its recent visit to Fiji will form the basis of the leaders’ final decision. The question is—how many more “rounds” are there before we know the winner?

We hope both parties will reach a compromise and the match does not end up in a knockout. But only time will tell.