Political analysts in Papua New Guinea are divided over whether there will be any furious activity at all in the country.

The pessimists have good evidence stacked on their side. Prime Minister Sir Michael Somare and his ruling National Alliance Party (NA) managed to weather various storms in 2002-2007 Parliament. They went on to set a PNG record of lasting the full five years in government never heard of since independence in 1975.

They went on to win the largest number of seats by any single political party in the 2007 elections. By the time Governor-General Sir Paulias Matane invited the NA to form the government, they had already beefed this up to 42 NA MPs with independents.

With support from former coalition partners and the Opposition ruling party, National People’s Congress, they formed the government with the support of 89 MPs

During the last 16 months, the Somare-led government faced a string of controversies—some of which should have been enough on their own or collectively to break the coalition partnership.

These controversies included the prime minister’s intervention on the former Attorney-General of Solomon Islands Julian Moti’s Inquiry by the Defence Force; the on-again-off-again financial inquiry which would throw light on the use of the Sepik Highway Trust Account; the mobile telephone war between B Mobile and Digicel over the international gateway; usage of the first K40 million of the National Agriculture Development Programme; Somare’s shareholding in the Pacific Register of Ships; questions about the alleged US$40 million from logging levies in Singapore; the Taiwan diplomatic scandal, the sale/merger of B Mobile to Black Dolphin; and queries on the handling of the Liquified Natural Gas Agreement.

Even the referrals to the Ombudsman’s Commission of Somare and the subsequent challenges mounted in the courts should have been enough to sink the boat. But aside from murmurs and the occasional outbursts, the government coalition partnership has remained intact.

This was aptly demonstrated by the way they voted to pass the 2009 Budget and other bills in the last session of parliament.

But the Opposition, fuelled by a sense of growing support from the public, has not thrown in the towel on over-throwing the government.

Led by former Prime Minister Sir Mekere Morauta, described by the late Transparency International (PNG) Inc founding chairman Sir Anthony Siaguru as “a reformist Prime Minister”, and former Treasurer and Finance Minister Bart Philemon, the Opposition leader and his deputy are not finished yet.

Their strength is the “coalition of equals” they formed during the lobbying to form the government and the reputation of integrity and consistency they enjoy.

Backed by powerhouse governors in former Prime Minister Sir Julius Chan (New Ireland), leading human rights lawyer Powes Parkop (National Capital District) and mostly first-time MPs, they intend to give it their best shot.

Any breakaways in the coalition government will have to deal with these 21 Opposition MPs, comprising four political parties and an independent MP as one unit.

The Opposition put in an early wedge during formation of government in 2007 with a Constitutional Reference on the qualification of Somare, under NA constitution, to raise his hand for prime ministership.

Another significant aspect of that challenge seeks a ruling that the Integrity Law is flawed and queries the legitimacy of the usage of such law in the process of the formation of government and the election of the prime minister. That case is likely to be resurrected.

However, in mid-December, the Opposition engaged Peter Donigi, of Warner Shand Lawyers, to become the second plaintiff in Western Province Governor Dr Bob Danaya’s court challenge on the constitutionality of the Organic Law on Integrity of Political Parties and Candidates (Integrity Law).

The Integrity Law was Morauta’s double-edged sword solution to political instability from party hopping MPs which among others provides for political parties to have their own resolutions prior to voting on the annual budget and constitutional amendments.

However, this voting along party lines has caused the ire of lawyers and some MPs who feel their mandated rights are under suppression from the Integrity law—a breach of the constitution.

If Danaya is successful before the courts, a lot of parliament decisions could be repealed automatically including the election of the prime minister. Naturally, the Opposition wants to reinforce that and have the courts create a political opening.

That is subject to the courts, however another potential threat to the government’s solidarity is looming from Western Highlands where former Prime Minister Paias Wingti successfully managed to secure a recount by the court of disputed returns on the regional seat occupied now by Governor Tom Olga.

Papua New Guinea has historically had three makers of Prime Ministers: Somare, Sir Julius Chan and Wingti. Somare secured government in 2007 outplaying Chan, whose 10 years out of parliament marginalised his strength.

Wingti has a bone to pick with NA whom he blames for his political demise. There has already been indications that if the count is in his favour, he would call his five-member People’s Democratic Movement party out of the government coalition partnership.

With the ousting of NA MPs via a successful court of disputed returns in David Arore from Ijivitari, Sir Arnold Amet from Madang Regional, Peter Wararu from Yangoru-Saussia, Michael Laimo from South Bougainville, the coalition government numbers would be 80 MPs.

But Wingti has not been twice prime minister for nothing—and is known to sow in advance. He has some natural allies among the Highlands MPs as well as some of the political parties currently in government, as well as in opposition.

Aside from the traditional makers of the prime minister, there are suggestions from some quarters of a growing number of dissenting first-time MPs. Their names are like the changing colours of an octopus but their grips extend beyond political party lines and the government versus opposition divide.

A critical issue is whether Prime Minister Somare backs his son Arthur as his successor or Treasurer and Finance Minister Patrick Pruaitch.

The pendulum has swung from the Pruaitch end to his son on this. The current sales pitch is that once all is secure, Somare will, before he retires, asks NA MPs and coalition partners to allow his son to conclude his five-year reign and lead the NA into another election.

NA can then elect a new parliamentary leader after the election. 

Whether the traditionalists especially Wingti pulls something off, how NA handles the prime ministerial suggestion, or if the young first-time MPs manage to upset the cart, the only sure thing is that “one day is a long time in PNG politics”. Nothing conclusive—only scenarios—can be examined until March 23 when parliament resumes.