Five months after his election as president of French Polynesia, Gaston Tong Sang is still struggling to maintain stability as the pendulum of power threatens to swing the other way.
If the recent elections for the two French senate seats are something to go by, the question then is how long will Tong Sang last?
Former President Gaston Flosse was elected by 372 of the 696 “grande electeurs” or elected officials, which included the 57 members of the French Polynesian Assembly for a second term in the French senate.
The second ticket went to 34-year-old Richard Tuheiava whose back-up candidate was French Assembly speaker and former president Oscar Temaru. They polled 361 votes against Tong Sang’s 318 votes.
It remains of interest where Flosse will sit in the French senate after he lost favour with Nicolas Sarkozy’s Union for a Popular Majority Party when he formed a political partnership with Temaru.
The UPMP had endorsed Tong Sang’s candidacy for the senate election.
Even leading up to the senate elections, threat of instability came in the form of Emile Vernaudon, mayor of Mahina, who demanded the sacking of two of his Ai’a Api party members—Agriculture Minister Fernand Roomataroa and Youth and Sports Minister Clarentz Vernaudon—as they “no longer reflected the values of the party”.
There was a possibility of Vernaudon instructing his partner Heifara Izal to cross the floor to the opposition if Tong Sang did not carry out his wishes.
That would end Tong Sang’s one vote majority in the assembly leaving room for an ousting if a motion of no confidence was filed.
The political instability in the French territory in the last four years—eight governments and three presidents—has affected the country’s economy with some experts saying it was in a recession.
Tourism, fishing and pearl farming, the backbone of French Polynesia’s economic well-being, have all experienced downturns prompting the government to raise the minimum wage to US$1,851 a month from beginning this month to maintain the peoples’ purchasing power.
The latest outlook released by the Institute of Statistics of French Polynesia (ISPF) reveals exports to be down by 21 percent for the first quarter of this year compared to the same period last year.
This was largely due to a 40 percent drop in the purchase of pearls by Hong Kong and Japan, which together comprise more than 80 percent of French Polynesia’s pearl export market.
Fishing sales registered only US$349,338 for the first quarter, a poor result never experienced before in the last 12 years.
Tourism, experiencing no real growth in the last five years, has suffered mostly due to fuel price increases, which in turn has led to expensive airline tickets.
There have also been a decrease in flights to the country, thus depressing the tourism industry further.
From the month of January to May, French Polynesia witnessed a 7.4 percent decrease in visitor arrivals compared to the same period last year with its Japanese market suffering a 23 percent fall.
Apart from tourism, the construction industry is also experiencing a downturn due to low investor confidence.
Unemployment rates in the country stand at 11.7 percent of the total population. Those most affected are high school leavers with one estimate estimating that at least 27 percent of 20-year olds are unemployed.
New measures: Questions sent to President Tong Sang’s office were not answered when this edition went to press. But his government will from this month increase welfare benefits to offset the impact of inflation increases experienced since January.
This new measure, apart from increasing the minimum wage, will cost the state an estimated US$20.9 million and benefit 50,000 people or around 19 percent of the country’s population of 260,000.
According to Tahitipresse, the increased minimum wage and welfare payments come at a critical moment during a controversial debate over whether French Polynesia is in a recession or may soon find itself in one.
“While that debate shows no signs of coming up with a definitive answer soon, there is less debate over the impact being felt in the country from the outside world’s increased energy and food costs, a weak US dollar and a much stronger euro.
“While the Tong Sang government preferred to wait until next year to apply the welfare benefit measures, political pressure within the French Polynesian Assembly forced it to accept the opposition’s push to implement the increases this year,” the news agency said.