Islands Business - We Say: THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL FOR FIJI

‘The effect that negative perceptions can have on an industry like tourism, which indeed is the nation’s economic bedrock, cannot be overstated.'

A serious threat of suspension from the Pacific Islands Forum by all its peer nations bar none; millions of dollars worth of previously committed funds from the European Union held in indefinite abeyance; open disbelief from all quarters at its stated reason for boycotting last month’s Forum meet in Niue; uncharacteristic and open criticism by senior regional leaders; world powers like the United States throwing its weight behind the tough stance taken by the regional leaders ... If that is the big, bold writing on the wall the leadership of Fiji’s interim administration cannot read—or pretends not to read—the situation will very probably lead to a head-on confrontation with the rest of the world rallied on one side, and lonely, self-isolated Fiji on the other, before this year is out.

The condemnation heaped on it for boycotting the Forum for the most specious of reasons and for reneging on the promise of elections that it made last year has been unprecedented. Unlike in the months following the December 2006 coup, when the most vocal criticism came from western countries led by New Zealand and Australia, the entire region has raised its voice this time around. Some leaders have not minced their words in their strong criticism of the Fijian leadership.

The Fijian leadership has none but itself to blame for this state of affairs. And there is no reasoning whatsoever in any quarter for disagreeing with the hard stand that the Forum leaders have taken. Against the backdrop of the events that have just unfolded, it is completely justified—there can be no argument against it.

By staying out of the Forum on such flimsy grounds, the Fijian leadership squandered its one and only golden opportunity this year to engage with its peers as well as other bigger nations of the region and some of the region’s and even the world’s biggest donor agencies to put forth its point of view or explanation—whatever that may have been—about why it was not keeping the promise it made last year about elections by March 2009.

Its reason for staying out made it apparent that it was desperately looking for any avenue to escape facing the leaders at the region’s most powerful annual meeting: the leaders cannot be faulted for arriving at this consensus. Even if Fiji felt slighted or insulted at not being invited for post-Forum dialogues in New Zealand, it could well have highlighted this during the Forum meeting in Niue, thereby putting New Zealand on the mat and getting the Pacific leaders to put pressure on it to change its decision.

Such a move would have amply demonstrated the Fijian leadership’s seriousness and resolve in engaging with the Forum. But by choosing to stay out on such a reason, it has in one fell swoop alienated the entire leadership including its closely linked Melanesian bloc whose leaders too have been as vocal and unsparing in their criticism as the rest of the leaders.

As well as losing its credibility with both the world and the regional leaders, the ill-advised Fijian leadership has jeopardised Fiji’s very standing in the league of nations, which despite previous coups and periodic political instability was perceived as being inherently resilient with fairly strong fundamentals.

But its leadership’s self-alienation with the Pacific community has once again opened the country to further criticisms of a weak political system that is chronically prone to periodic bouts of a coup mentality in its political ethos, which every once in a while throws up an individual—or a bunch of them—who walk all over democratic institutions with impunity undermining them at their whim.

Alienation from the Forum and the lone furrow that the Fijian leadership seems to have chosen for itself also jeopardises the country’s economy—one of the biggest and most vibrant in the region—despite problems faced since independence.

Commodore Bainimarama: little to smile about. Pic: Dev Nadkarni

The effect that negative perceptions can have on an industry like tourism, which indeed is the nation’s economic bedrock, cannot be overstated. It is only a question of time when bad blood created between Forum member nations—and by extension the rest of the world—will feed on itself to burgeon into a dark cloud of negativism that will undoubtedly hang over Fiji like a pall of gloom over the coming few months.

There is already a perception in the business circles in New Zealand and Australia that recent events, if left to snowball, will likely result in increasing trade sanctions that would only serve to tighten the noose further on the country’s already shrunken economy. Short of expelling Fiji from the Forum at the Niue meeting, the countries have delivered an ultimatum to the Fijian leadership. There is still time for it to engage with its peers and put its cards on the table before the rest of the Pacific leadership, even if it feels distrustful of New Zealand and Australia and would not like to invite them for discussions—as has been indicated by one interim leader in the case of New Zealand.

The Fijian leadership must realise that unlike what it says, neither the region nor the world is interested in talking down to it or getting it to follow any extraneous agenda. Clearly, what the world is interested in is the quickest possible return to democracy and the rule of law, the rebuilding and re-empowering of democratic institutions including an unfettered media and the return of Fiji as a proud and respected regional leader. In fact that would be in the supreme interests of the people of Fiji—the very constituency the interim administration purports to serve—but with methods that are completely unacceptable in this day and age.

The Forum leaders’ warning is quite simply the last one the Fijian leadership can take heed of. Failing to do so, may confirm the world’s worst fears of the country going down the unfortunate road to political and economic ruin like so many despot-led states in the past.