'This is an important time for the islands to assess their interests and how they are going to deal with the coming challenges—both individually and collectively.'


In October 2005, the United States announced that a majority of the US Marines based on the Japanese island of Okinawa would be relocated to the western Pacific Island of Guam in a process that would last until 2014.

That announcement has been followed up with action and the US government is already on its way to building a new base in Guam, which will see the island’s population rise by a massive 22,000.

Thus far, the geopolitical and other far-reaching implications of this move have been almost completely overshadowed by report after glowing report of the great, once in a lifetime economic opportunity that it brings to the region.

Pacific Islanders have been lured by the sudden possibility of a windfall worth millions of dollars, thanks to some 12,000 jobs that are to be created as a result of the move which is estimated to cost US$15 billion—easily the biggest single infrastructure project ever in the region.

While any surge in economic activity is a welcome sign, especially at a time when most of the world is enveloped in a recession that only seems to be deepening with each passing week, it is equally important to consider other aspects that would affect the region.

Undoubtedly, the US move will irreversibly and dramatically alter the geopolitical balance of the Pacific region.

Over the past two decades, the growing void created by the steadily diminishing influence of the ANZAC nations has been quietly but quickly filled by the geopolitical ambitions of economically and militarily powerful Asian nations.

Some of these nations in recent years have been accused of adversely affecting the political equations in the region through their relentless efforts to buy influence from islands nations by throwing around large dollops of aid—a lot of it unconditional and with little supervision or accountability on how it is spent. Their influence has been so strong that elections have been contested in the islands on the issue of support to these nations.

The re-entry of the US as a serious and long-term player in the Pacific will undoubtedly alter the dynamics of power play in the world’s biggest geophysical feature, which is also one that is the least explored in terms of mineral wealth that is thought to lie deep within its bosom. Which is what makes the presence of world powers in the region most strategic, not just militarily but also because of economic reasons.

At a conference of Asian defence ministers and military chiefs in Singapore last month, the US made its intentions clear. Its Defence Secretary Robert Gates underscored the strategic importance of Guam to Washington’s long-term presence in East Asia.

Using phrases like “resident power”, “maintaining solid and long lasting interests in the area” and projecting the US as an “ally, partner and friend”, he sought to firmly set right any misgivings the US was planning a slow withdrawal from the region. He also revealed it was building a new aircraft carrier to be permanently positioned in the region, with Guam as its base.

The US appears to be wasting no time in settling down in the area: reports last month said its airforce had begun practice bombing sessions in the waters around the Northern Marianas. Two B-52 bombers were reported to have participated in exercises involving dropping concrete bombs in practice sessions near the Kwajalein Atoll.

The commander of the bomb squadron based at Guam was reported to have said the US Air Force was at pains to ensure the practice bombing would not cause any environmental damage.

Significantly for the region, the US is not alone in seeing the strategic importance of dropping anchor permanently in the Pacific.

The French government announced last month it had appointed a new head of the Armed Forces in French Polynesia. The position also includes the titles of “Commander of the Pacific Ocean Maritime Area” and “Commander of the Pacific Experiment Centre,” the erstwhile base for French nuclear testing in the Pacific that ended in 1996.

These moves quite obviously go beyond concerns of strategic global security and policing. In recent years, the region has attracted the attention of global business behemoths as well in the areas of both oceanic and sea floor natural resources.

In the past couple of years, nations like PNG, Tonga, Samoa and Fiji have opened up their doors to collaborations with big mining companies to prospect for minerals, oil and gas in their territorial waters. Applications for prospecting in several other nations are piling up.

Also, the islands have been busy these past few months readying their submissions to the United Nations for defining the extents of their continental shelves—something that will give them tremendous leveraging power over the exploitation of natural resources in their hopefully extended exclusive economic zones.

This mineral wealth adds a new dimension to the strategic importance of the region and it is small wonder the world’s most powerful nations are already jostling for a slice of the pie whose size is mind-boggling to say the least—in fact, there are not even guesstimates of how large it might be.

This is an important time for the islands to assess their interests and how they are going to deal with the coming challenges both individually and collectively. Done rationally with the sovereign, environmental and people’s interests at heart, the islands can well turn this increasing interest in the region by the superpowers into long-term wealth for future generations.

But an ill-informed, short-sighted approach that would seek to feed narrow political and personal interest would only rob the islands nations of what is rightfully theirs for a pittance—not unlike what happened in the dark days of imperialistic expansion by the world’s then maritime superpowers.