Islands Business - Letter from Suva: THE WORRYING QUESTIONS BEING ASKED ABOUT FIJI

So, what happens if Bainimarama does not keep his promise?

Laisa Taga

Do you think Fiji will have an election come March 2009? It is interesting when you pose this question randomly to people on the streets.

“Election, what election? I am now just worried about putting food on the table. Everything is getting very expensive and the interim government does not seem to be concerned about it,” one respondent said.

Others believe that with the way things are going now, an election next March is not looking good.

There has been considerable debate on whether Voreqe “Frank” Bainimarama, the coup-maker who overthrew the elected government on 6 December 2006, will return Fiji to the polls next March. This is despite this being repeatedly promised.

Bainimarama had made a commitment at the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting in Tonga last year. He said that Fiji will go to the polls in March and in accordance with the Fiji constitution.

But latest developments, however have created concerns not only within the Forum Working Group on Fiji but also amongst the Forum foreign ministers.

So much so that the foreign ministers have now set up a ministerial group. This is to show that the Forum wants the Fiji regime to deliver on its promise of holding general elections early next year.

Leaders talk... Frank Bainimarama (left) with other Pacific islands leaders in Tonga last year.

Australian foreign minister Stephen Smith, following a Forum foreign ministers meeting in New Zealand in March, said: “The establishment of the ministerial contact group reflects the seriousness with which the Forum views concerns over the lack of preparedness for the election and worry about the use of the people’s charter.

“Secondly, it reflects the very strong view on the part of Forum members that the Forum itself has a responsibility to hold the interim government to account to ensure the interim government’s commitment to Forum leaders in 2007 is met.”

So, what happens if Bainimarama does not keep his promise?

As one observer says: “His credibility is at stake. He won’t be trusted because he says one thing and does something else. I am hoping he thinks real hard before reneging on this promise.”

On the costs of deferring elections, the observer says: “The EU will be strong in its response. My guess is that we will be in such dire straights with the economy that the PM will have little choice but to hold elections as promised. I am hoping that common sense prevails.”

The observerŃwho spoke on condition of not being identified, as many do in Fiji these daysŃsaid: “Fiji, if it is not careful, is headed down the same path as many of the now failed African states. To be honest, I think the charter will achieve little if anything at all.

“One and a half years has passed since the coup and there is no light yet at the end of the tunnel.”

But what happens if the international community continues to put pressure on Bainimarama to keep his word?

Dr Satish Chand, of the Australian National University, in a blog he wrote for Lowe University in the United States, said: “The elections taking place next March is possibly the least of the real concerns. If history is any guide, then the Commodore will deliver on this promise. Recall the repeated threats in the lead-up to the last coup?”

The real issues for Fiji, he said, are whether the elections will be ‘fair and free’ and if it will enable Fiji to dismount from its cycle of coups.

“I am not sure of either of the above. But another election, with the urgings of the international community, could just make matters worse.

“Place yourself in the shoes of the Commodore. Will you risk losing an election, knowing fully well the consequences that will follow?

“The Commodore has vowed to stop the SDL, the party he ousted from government, from recontesting the March 09 elections.

“Will the elections be judged ‘fair and free’ should this promise be kept? Even if kept out of the race, what if a re-badged SDL makes it through? Another coup? Yet one more repeat of the well-rehearsed chorus by the international community?

“The possibility of a return to power of some incarnation of the SDL is not beyond the realms of possibilities. The international community would have done Fiji a huge disservice if by pushing for ‘fair and free elections by March 2009 it edges the nation to its fifth coup.”

Can the Forum penalise Fiji if it does not keep its commitment?

Up until now the Forum has always believed in engaging with Fiji in solving its problems. But how long can the region continue to engage? And what happens if Fiji still does not keep its promise?

Will the Forum continue to engage or will they say enough is enough, it is now time to change tack and take a tougher stance?

If so, what mechanisms are in place in the Forum machinery to handle such cases?

The Biketawa Declaration is there, but it does not have the provisions to penalise states. Leaders will have to revisit the declaration. They will have to look at the other models like the Commonwealth’s Harare Declaration to introduce new amendments for errant states on the basis of long-term implications on the image and security of the region.

Leaders will now have to decide the next course of action in light of what is happening in the region.