Satish Chand
The leaders of the 14 Forum Islands countries will be meeting in Nukua’lofa, the capital of the Friendly Isles, early next month. This gathering, possibly the most important regional event on the annual calendar, is likely to be all the more important this year. On the agenda are: (i) measures to facilitate an early return to democracy in neighbouring Fiji; and, (ii) the future of the Regional Assistance Mission to the Solomon Islands (RAMSI). Neither of these discussions is likely to be easy, thus the friendly charm of the host nation may come in handy for a successful outcome.

Some good Vanuatu kava mixed in Fiji Water served in traditional Tongan-style, all behind closed doors, could also help. There is, however, reason for hope since more than a century of collective good wisdom would be mulling over these issues within the confines of a room.

Fiji first

There has been a slow but favourable diplomatic shift on Fiji. Easing of travel restrictions by Australia for senior bureaucrats from Fiji is a tangible sign of this shift.

The invitation by Tonga to the Interim Prime Minister of Fiji to attend the Leaders Forum is an indication that the close neighbour is willing to engage PM Bainimarama in a constructive dialogue on how best to assist Fiji get back to constitutional rule.

Importantly, PM Bainimarama has expressed his intention to attend. He, however, would need to come prepared with a way forward for Fiji and to listen to his colleagues on their concerns. His peers would also need to come prepared to listen and with an open mind. I had, in the last issue of ISLANDS BUSINESS, canvassed for such an opportunity, arguing that ostracising Fiji was not in anyone’s interest, least of all Fiji.

The calming effects of kava would help in the meeting, but only if the animosities of the past are left behind, possibly on the tarmacs in Canberra, (Honiara—see next), Suva and Wellington.

RAMSI rumble following a hurried conception

Here, I want to take up the impending challenge with RAMSI, a mission that is in its fifth year and showing no signs of being wound down.

This is despite some rumblings from Honiara, particularly by PM Manasseh Sogavare. The Happy Isles has not been all that happy lately with this regional ‘Operation Helpem Fren’, the government in office may even argue that what is being done is not helping and possibly not very friendly either.

Given its regional character, some serious talking may be necessary at the Leaders Forum to put this mission on an even keel. RAMSI was conceived in a hurry in early 2003 in Australia. Armed peacekeepers began arriving in Honiara from July 24, but without an (articulated) exit strategy. Unusual for a predominantly military operation which four years on is still without an articulated time-bound exit strategy.

Given its marked absence, let me sketch one out which the leaders may want to flesh out.

Sketch of an Exit Strategy

The official website for RAMSI (http://www.ramsi.org/) informs us that the over-arching goal of the mission “is for a peaceful, well-governed and prosperous Solomon Islands”. Unfortunately, none of the above can be quantified.

When is peaceful peaceful enough, or well-governed well-governed enough? At a minimum, however, the espoused goal provides the preconditions for exit.

One could argue that peace has returned, the administration is being governed well, and the economy is on the mend. Not enough for an exit, many have suggested however.

On my trip to Honiara last June, many pointed out to me that the achievements to date are well short of being sufficient to guarantee against a roll-back into crisis should RAMSI be withdrawn. I agree as sustained peace has to be girded on prosperity. It is only when the majority of the citizenry choose to voluntarily comply with the laws of the state can long-term peace and stability be assured.

The espoused goal, the website claims, is to be pursued “over the long-term through a mutual commitment with the Solomon Islands Government”. What does long-term exactly means? Is four years enough or could this be 40, perhaps even 400? Many in Solomon Islands are asking as to when exactly the mission will be rolling up its tents. Similarly, doubts are being cast on the claimed ‘mutual commitment of the Solomon Islands Government’ to the mission. The impression I got talking to several members of the Honiara public was that RAMSI was the sole guarantor of peace in the friendly isles, thus there is no hurry to see it depart. My guess is that the general public would be happy with RAMSI’s tenure as large as 20 years, but they do want some certainty on when it will come to an end.

There was, however, little doubt that the warmth of the initial welcome was quickly disappearing. The welcome mat may also be slowly rolled back. Time, thus, for leaders to spell out an exit plan. RAMSI was more than simply about restoring law and order in the aftermath of a four-year civil conflict.

Its mandate included the restoration of safety and security to the traumatised civilians, repair and reform the machinery of government (including its broken-down fiscal systems), and the revival of the economy. As noted earlier, progress had been made on each of the above-mentioned, but possibly not enough yet to warrant its demise.

RAMSI, nonetheless, is not an indefinite mission. Neither the taxpayers in donor nations nor those in Solomon Islands have an insatiable appetite for RAMSI. No nation wants to see an indefinite foreign military presence within its borders. Independence struggles of the colonial era are a timely reminder of the above. RAMSI, thus, cannot be complacent about the length of its welcome. Taxpayers in donor nations, Australia particularly, given the large financial burden shouldered by them, cannot be expected to carry this responsibility forever either. The Australian economy is chugging along nicely, now more than a decade and a half into an expansion phase. But wait until things start to falter when unemployment begins to climb and when those denied basic services begin to squeal.

This is when questions will be raised on the extravagances of the government in its island neighbourhood. To give you a feel for the numbers involved, the good Aussie taxpayers have pumped in some A$1.2 billion into the Happy Isles since the inception of RAMSI. This works out at some A$500 for every man, woman, and child in Solomon Islands every year for the past four years. The assistance has helped, particularly when compared to a scenario of no assistance.

The gun brandishing peacekeepers, the cash-strapped expatriates, and the laptop laden technocrats have helped in restoring peace, rebalancing the books, and reigniting demand in the local economy. More of the same, however, may not be all that welcome. Compare the value of the current assistance to one that involved simply handing over cash, some A$500, to every Solomon Islander. Better still, if this was done with a sunset clause; say with a commitment to bring this to a close at the end of the decade. Hypothetical, you might say, but not a bad one to use in assessing the effectiveness of the current transfers.

Policing poverty

A successful exit of RAMSI could follow only after a marked decline in poverty. Policing of poverty rather than simply of the law-breakers, thus, may be critical to tracking a way out for RAMSI. A prosperous Solomon Islands where the majority of the citizens see value in abiding by the rules and thus willing to incarcerate the few ‘rotten apples’ would guarantee long-term stability and peace. Paternalism, regardless of its good intentions, as history has repeatedly demonstrated, works only over short horizons and within close spatial confines. Furthermore, it does not take too long for paternalism, however well intentioned, to change to being patronising.

RAMSI must wake up to the fact that its welcome in the Happy Isles is finite and that it will need to plan an exit before being starved of warmth, welcome and/or resources. The mission may have been conceived in a hurry in Canberra, landed on Red Beach at short notice, but four years since is long enough for an articulation of a well thought out exit plan. Absent this, the risks are too great that the exit would probably be even more rushed than the initial entry.

Given the regional character of RAMSI, the leaders at this forum should give some considered thought to an exit plan. And yes, a mild herbal sedative such as kava served in traditional Tongan style may just be what is required to progress these two touchy issues on the agenda. I am banking my hopes on the host, their concoctions and the wisdom of participants at the Leaders Forum. Fingers crossed!