Satish Chand
The leaders of the 14 Pacific Islands Forum Countries will be meeting in Nuku’alofa in October.

High on their agenda will be the festering governance challenges in Fiji and the Solomon Islands. What is needed is a clear and implement-able exit strategy, the absence of which explains the quagmire both the interim administration in Fiji and the Regional Assistance Mission in Solomon Islands (RAMSI) are already in.

The Leaders Forum provides an opportunity for Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama and PM Manasseh Sogavare to initiate discussions on how transition from the current situation to a preferred one could be managed.

Prime Minister Dr Fred Sevele of Tonga, moreover, may have some words of wisdom on what could be done given his experience in inching Nuku’alofa away from the brink of a messy conflict late last year.
Here, I take up the challenges for the leaders on Fiji, while leaving the same for RAMSI for another issue.

FRANKNESS ON FIJI FIRST

The military regime that installed itself into power with a coup in Fiji last December would be familiar with an exit strategy.

The army, as a general rule, works out an exit strategy before embarking upon any intervention.

The last coup could not have been an exception. What has been missing, however, has been an articulation of this strategy.

The ‘clean up’ campaign, if genuine, implies that the Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) had envisaged a return to the barracks once completed. The continuing rhetoric seems to suggest this to be the intention, but well thought-out exit strategies are also time-bound and incorporate alternate scenarios.

The RFMF, being a well-trained and professional outfit, would have done its homework on all of the above and well before the coup.

The last coup was not executed in a hurry, thus time was never a constraint in mapping out an exit strategy. 

Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama has the opportunity to articulate RFMF’s exit strategy to the Leaders at their Forum meeting in Nuku’alofa in October.

He might as well make good use of this opportunity. It would be a start to normalising relationships with the international community, and provide an opportunity for Bainimarama to (frankly) explain his position. 

The leaders, on their part, could lend their ears, quiz Bainimarama on his plans, and share their concerns on developments in Fiji. 

Past hostilities such as those between PM Bainimarama and PM Helen Clark of New Zealand would have to be left at home if any genuine progress is to be made at the Forum meeting. 

The discussions, moreover, would have to be undertaken behind closed doors and definitely away from the prying eyes of the media.

It would need to be chaired by a respected and impartial peer. The Tongan PM as the host and with the above-mentioned qualities, presents himself as a possible candidate to chair the discussions. 

Progress on Fiji, to have any hope, requires frankness and goodwill on the part of ALL the leaders at the summit.

This can never be assured, however. Putting all the leaders within in a room and behind locked doors and with an understanding that they will be let out only when a consensus on the way forward is reached may force collective rationality to prevail on their part.

Let us not forget that change for the better and if it is to be achieved, would have to be initiated and implemented by the administration in office. 

In the case of Fiji, the leaders themselves need an amicable exit from their current predicament; a path that leads to jail will only force them to dig in and with it drown any chances of a return to democratic rule. 

The participants at the Forum Leaders meeting would need to be cognisant of the above.

COSTLY COUPS

Coups have been costly to Fiji first and the region next. My own calculations suggest that each coup has pushed Fiji back in terms of economic progress by a minimum of three years.

The last coup is unlikely to be an exception to this claim. The coup culture, thus, has to be jettisoned; a fact acknowledged by the leadership in Fiji.

The challenge for the Leaders in discussing Fiji would be one of encouraging Bainimarama to exit office while simultaneously discouraging another would-be coup-maker from being enticed into carrying out this treasonable act.

I wish I knew the formula for this, but 14 leaders’ minds, I am assuming, are better than that of an academic’s such as mine.

The author is with the Australian National University.