But can Fiji count on support from its “real” friends? Or will it be left to fight its own battle without support it might have expected?

Laisa Taga
Will Fiji come out unscathed when the Pacific Islands Forum’s foreign ministers meet in Port Vila this month?

There’s no doubt Australia and New Zealand will lead the pressure on Fiji as the ministers consider the Forum Eminent Persons Group report and recommendations on the Fiji military coup.

But can Fiji count on support from its “real” friends? Or will it be left to fight its own battle without support it might have expected?

As the Port Vila meeting approached, Letter from Suva was hearing reports of twists and turns within the Melanesian Spearhead Group, where Fiji would normally expect its strongest support to come from. If you read the February  edition of ISLANDS BUSINESS with the story titled “Battle looms if Fiji’s suspended”, you would have been left in no doubt that Melanesian solidarity was as firm as it has ever been. The accompanying photograph said it all.

Melanesian Spearhead Group foreign ministers who met in Solomons Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare’s territory in January vouched to stand united behind Fiji during its troubled times.

They even warned Australia and New Zealand that if they were thinking of suspending Fiji from the Forum, they would have a battle on their hands.

But fast forward to the end of last month.

Fiji was told in a letter apparently signed by the head of the PNG foreign ministry, Gabriel Pepson, on behalf of the interim Forum chair, PNG prime minister Grand Chief Sir Michael Somare, that Fiji’s interim government won’t be allowed to sign the Melanesian Spearhead Group Agreement.

The signing ceremony was to have been held on February 23, at Port Vila, Vanuatu, where the MSG headquarters is located. It was deferred because PM Sogavare was facing a vote-of-no-confidence on the same day the signing was  to have been held. The signing has now been moved to March 23, one week after the Forum’s foreign ministers’ meeting.

The decision took Fiji by surprise.

SURPRISE ONE: The tone of the letter in which the MSG had unilaterally taken the decision to disallow Fiji from signing the agreement without first discussing it. A well connected Fiji Government source said: “What MSG should have done was give us a number of options and we’ll then decide how we’re going to handle that, whether we sign or not. Rather than making the decision for us.”

SURPRISE TWO: There was no inkling of this development during the Honiara meeting in which the MSG had rallied support behind Fiji.

SURPRISE THREE: Fiji first got wind of the decision when a senior government official who was attending a meeting in Brussels in January was told by a European Union official.

So why was Fiji not allowed to sign?

A political observer well versed with Forum matters said the MSG Agreement initially was to have been signed in Nadi last year during the Forum Leaders’ meeting. At this stage, Fiji still had an elected government under Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase.

“It was deferred after Fiji put a condition on governance under pressure from Australia and New Zealand,” the observer said.

“Other founding members had cautioned Fiji that putting such conditions on the MSG Agreement would not be in our best interest as we are developing countries and will always have some problems as we grow up.

“The founding members are now saying ‘well you put that condition, this is your situation, what’s the deal?’ It has now come back to bite Fiji in the butt,” the observer said.

So what can Fiji expect as the Forum foreign ministers meet in Port Vila?

As predicted it won’t be easy. There will be a lot of opposition and criticism to Fiji’s “roadmap” back to democracy as announced by Fiji’s interim prime minister, military commander Voreqe “Frank” Bainimarama.

Fiji’s foreign minister, Ratu Epeli Nailatikau, who will be at the Port Vila meeting, has a lot of personal popularity in some of the Forum countries.

But from what Letter from Suva is hearing, he will have to pull out all the stops and put on the best performance of his diplomatic life for Fiji’s interim government to get a result it can live with.

It appears Ratu Epeli will not be able to rely on the expected support from Fiji’s fellow Melanesian bloc members.

That could lead to Australia and New Zealand having more support than they might have expected as they put the pressure on Bainimarama and his administration.

Interesting times indeed for the Forum, with its own headquarters sitting in Suva. The result and repercussions from the Port Vila meeting might not only impact on future directions for Fiji. It could have major consequences for the Forum itself.