The prognostications for 2007

Samisoni Pareti
How bad can a year be when in just a matter of 12 months you have a coup, two destructive riots, a couple of prime ministers and  president losing office, an envoy of a friendly neighbour expelled and a new pact with a major trading partner hangs in the balance?

The late Robert Keith-Reid would surely have given a definite "worrying red" at the "traffic light signals" for several Pacific Islands Countries as 2006 ends and the new year dawns.

Fiji

Paparazzi wait... outside the ousted Fiji Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase's residence.

Fiji-a country that tends to pride itself as the hub of the Pacific-is picking up the pieces from yet another devastating coup.

No single shot was fired and there was no rioting of the 2000 coup proportion. But the forceful removal of its democratically-elected government and the bad press it received scared away tourists and investors alike.

Economists had estimated that each of the last three coups regressed development in the island nation by 10 to 15 years and indications so far this latest coup d'etat won't be any different.

2007 for Fiji would be one of rebuilding and reconstruction amidst a growing suspicious populace tired by the propensity of its leaders to resort to guns to solve its problems.

The imaginary line is beginning to blur between the so-called arch of instability in Melanesia and the peaceful Polynesia.

It came to bear when a deadly riot erupted in the quaint seaside town of Nuku'alofa, capital of the region's only surviving kingdom.

Tonga

As 2007 sets in, commoner prime minister Dr Fred Sevele and new King Siaosi Tupou V are still counting the cost of the riot that destroyed more than half of Nuku'alofa's business and shopping district and killed eight people. The latest estimate speaks of T$300 million worth of damage.

The coronation of King Siaosi, eldest son of the late King Taufa'ahau Tupou IV, has been deferred to 2008, although it is early days yet to know whether Sevele would still be hosting this year's annual summit of Pacific Islands Forum leaders.

Rebuilding Nuku'alofa will be the preoccupation of Tonga for 2007, the pace of which will be determined by how the king and his prime minister handle the push for greater democratic reforms.

With some 700 people charged with widespread looting and arson attacks on November 16, Tonga's aristocracy now knows the pace towards greater democracy cannot be slowed down nor down played.

In the Solomons, the fire that destroyed Honiara's Chinatown had some direct bearing on governance and this, some analysts say, will be played on to the new year.

Unhappy about the appointment of Synder Rini as prime minister after the last April general election swept his predecessor Sir Allan Kemakeza out of power, mobs of angry men threw molotov cocktails at Chinese-owned businesses, looted and threatened those that wanted to stop the raging inferno.

Solomon Islands

Governance dictated most of what transpired in this Melanesian island state in 2006 and this is expected to still feature prominently in 2007 with Manasseh Sogavare surviving at least two no-confidence motions easily in the past year to strengthen his position as prime minister.

It was Sogavare who ordered the expulsion last September of the Australian High Commissioner Patrick Cole which triggered the 'David versus Goliath' diplomatic row between the two countries.

So intense was the squabble that it enveloped Papua New Guinea, threatened the future of the Melanesian Spearhead Group and overshadowed the agenda of last October's Pacific Islands Forum summit in Nadi, Fiji.

With Sogavare now insisting a reduced Australian role in RAMSI, the regional assistance mission scheme that his country is hosting at Canberra's funding (in the main), the 'David versus Goliath' row is expected to be played out throughout the new year.

2007 will be another busy year for election offices in the region.

Whilst four countries went to the polls last year which returned two prime ministers (only for one of them to lose office again through a coup d'etat), seven independent countries and territories would be seeking fresh mandates from their electorates in the new year.

Tokelau

Tokelau is included, as islanders on its three atolls will participate in a referendum, its second in 12 months, to determine its political future.

A similar exercise in 2006 saw 60 percent of Tokelauns voting yes to a semi-autonomy status with New Zealand.
It fell short of the two-thirds majority required to affirm the change.

Elections are also scheduled in the Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Papua New Guinea, Nauru and the French territory of Wallis and Futuna.

Papua New Guinea

Colourful Papua New Guinea... goes to the polls this year. Prime Minister Sir Michael Somare is seeking another term.

The region's Grand Chief Sir Michael Somare is seeking another term in his country's June election.

He is the first prime minister of PNG to serve his full five-year term.

Like Somare, the largest country in the region has some equally capable and fine leaders like Sir Mekere Morauta, Sir Rabbie Namaliu and Bart Philemon, but the biggest obstacle for all of them will be securing the required support in parliament.

As Somare had shown, much hinges on the kind of 'carrots' each would be able to dangle.

French Polynesia

For the French territory of French Polynesia, students of politics should be able to explain the relationship of its politicians to the month of December.

During that month in 2004, Oscar Temaru lost office in a no-confidence motion tabled successfully in the island's legislature by his nemesis, Gaston Flosse.

In December 2005, Temaru almost lost office again over noisy strikes and protests over his US$1.36 billion budget.

Twelve months later, Temaru lost his presidency, yet again, through another censure motion.

As in Tonga, the constant bickering and removal from office of President Temaru does not fit well with those who tout the stablising influence of Polynesia in the stormy politics of Melanesia.

Kiribati

2007 in Micronesia will be just as interesting. Kiribati's Anote Tong will be seeking a fresh mandate in July as well as President Ludwig Scotty of Nauru.

Their colleagues in Federated States of Micronesia and the Marshall Islands will be doing the same.

In releasing its 2006 Human Development Report, the United Nations says climate change and high population growth will impact greatly on the water sources of these atoll nations.

In addition, their vast tuna stock is the envy of many developed nations, the European Union (EU) included.

With the EU now accused of delaying tactics in its negotiations with Pacific members of ACP (African, Caribbean and Pacific) states for Economic Partnership Agreements, the race to secure such agreements by the end of 2007 is now in doubt.

The EU's position to negotiate bilateral fisheries agreements with the Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati and Solomon Islands in defiance of a collective decision by islands countries to pursue a multilateral pact has also been soundly condemned by Oxfam International.

Nauru

But it's not all doom and gloom though for 2007. A flickering light of hope comes from Nauru where its transport and finance ministers have renewed attempts at forming a regional airline.

But amidst that hope lies some reluctance that such a concept will only succeed at the expense of national carriers.

Indeed, however, one look at it, whether its tuna stocks, governance, trade pacts or regionalism, all these islands issues are linked to either one or more of the three "blights" the late Keith-Reid identified for the Pacific which are HIV/AIDS, poverty and unemployment.