Islands Business - Views from Auckland: TO COOPERATE IS TO BE PRAGMATIC --NOT COWARDLY

No quarter in Fiji must give any cause for the regime to delay on delivering what it has promised. That will only give an excuse to the administration to entrench itself further and get used to the alluring trappings of power.

Dev Nadkarni

Fiji's fourth coup was by no means a sudden development. There is no reason why Qarase's ousted administration could not see it coming. All along, it dealt with it indecisively and half-heartedly, the problem only compounded by Ratu Josefa Iloilo's incapacitated presidency.

The botched attempt to remove Bainimarama in absentia proved to be the tipping point. And his final attempts to bend backwards at the Wellington meeting were far too late. After more than a year of brinkmanship, someone had to give. It was Qarase.

Two weeks after the military takeover, Fiji remains calm. And I believe it is more to the credit of the peace-loving nature of Fijians than to their fear of the barrel of the gun as has been pointed out by some western commentators. Australians and New Zealanders have urged rebellion-even inciting the army to rise against its leadership. Qarase, too, has suggested peaceful resistance. But clearly people are too focused on getting on with their lives in as peaceful a manner as possible. Suva's streets and shopping malls are a bustling testimony to this despite some very unfair international sanctions and suspension from the Commonwealth.

As things stand, the Qarase government's return to power looks a clear impossibility. There is little that his ousted government can do without risking violence-something that could quickly get out of hand if it starts and forces the military's stance to harden. Everything possible must be done to prevent Fiji from falling into any spiral of violence.

So does that mean Fiji's people must meekly accept this undemocratic military regime and put up with it? Not necessarily-and not for long certainly! Yet it must pick up the pieces and move on. Right now-there's no time to lose. In a situation as delicate as this, its options are very limited and will rapidly diminish with time.

The illegality of the military regime aside (about which little can be done without the risk of spiralling violence in any case), it has made some important statements. It is necessary to read between the lines to draw up a strategy for a return to democracy with a line of least resistance.

Soldiers place roadblocks on the eve of Fiji's fourth coup.

The regime has maintained from the start that it is primarily concerned with 'cleaning up' the administration. It followed through by sacking politicians and bureaucrats who it thinks are corrupt. It seems to have collected intelligence on these people in the run-up to the planned putsch and says it will hold investigations into allegations of corruption.

It says it is interested in restoring democracy and will hold elections "in 12 or 24 months". It has also said that members of the interim administration will not be allowed to contest the next elections. It has urged the Great Council of Chiefs to meet and re-elect the President in what looks like a ray of hope that it is indeed interested in restoring Fiji to a democratic polity at some stage.

The military administration has threatened that it could continue in power for decades should there be any opposition to its plans. And that is what must be prevented at all costs. Nothing must be done that would make the regime perceive that it is being pushed into a corner. All forces in Fiji must work together and cooperate to hold the military regime to its early assurances: early elections and a return to a democratically elected government-and a cleaned up administration.

No quarter in Fiji must give any cause for the regime to delay on delivering what it has promised. That will only give an excuse to the administration to entrench itself further and get used to the alluring trappings of power. Should that happen, Fiji could well go Pakistan's way. So far the people of Fiji have shown exemplary resilience-there is no reason why they should not go further and get the military administration to deliver its promises-as early as possible; peacefully and pragmatically.

Delays would be suicidal. Already there are the sanctions that will begin to kick in shortly. Then there is the international opprobrium that the country will have to live with as long as this administration is in place.

Thousands of jobs in the tourism industry have been lost and some employers have begun enforcing pay cuts-some of them clearly unscrupulously. Furthermore, the military regime's knee-jerk initiatives like the one unabashedly seeking mass approval by scrapping the ousted government's move to increase Value Added Tax will only hurt the economy even more.

Cooperating with the regime to set the stage for an early return to democracy as promised by it is Fiji's only peaceful option-and one of least resistance-at the moment. It is important to see it as a pragmatic option and not one of meek surrender. Since the regime has reposed its faith in the Great Council of Chiefs by urging it to convene as a starting point, that meeting must not be delayed.

Huge sacrifices may have to be made in the interests of an early return to democracy including possibly having to negotiate some sort of amnesty and immunity for the commodore and his army on almost the exact lines as envisioned in Qarase's Amnesty Bill that led to the present crisis. There is also a distinct possibility that the constitution will be abrogated by the interim administration.

Yet, no price is too high to pay for the promise of an early and peaceful return to democracy so that the country and the people can get on with their lives. If there are to be constitutional changes, this would be Fiji's great chance to make its polity coup-proof.

Also a three-year electoral cycle like in New Zealand would put the country on a faster track (finances to meet most electoral expenses come from overseas aid in any case).

The army so far has shown Fiji not just its options but also more than a semblance of a roadmap. Any action that would seem to shut those options and put obstacles in the roadmap would only give an excuse to the regime to harden its stand and entrench itself further-something that's in nobody's interest.

Cooperating with the army regime and forcing it to deliver on its early promises will also put the onus on Bainimarama to show his true intention behind the putsch: the true interests of the nation which he claims is what drove him to do what he has done-or the ulterior motive of self preservation to save himself from allegations of complicity in the killings of soldiers following the last coup.