'Growing conflict between China and Taiwan has given a new dimension to the region’s geopolitics that could lead to situations that Australia and New Zealand may not have the clout to deal with. It would pay to have a superpower like the US handy.



Considering that the United Nations and its General Assembly was not formed last month and the Pacific islands didn’t rise from the oceans in some sort of subterranean upheaval last week, the United States’ sudden discovery of the vote-casting value of tiny islands nations is curious.

Attending last month’s Pacific Islands Forum Meeting, US Assistant Secretary of State, Christopher Hill, said his country’s renewed interest in the region is partly because of the valuable votes the islands nations have in the United Nations (UN) General Assembly.

He said his boss, Secretary of State Condolezza Rice, wanted to attend too. But things being what they are with North Korea, she couldn’t. He also stated his colleagues must wonder what he was doing in the islands when the Pyongyang crisis was almost coming to a boil.

He downplayed though that America’s sudden interest had anything to do with the rapidly increasing interest and involvement of Asia’s military and economic powerhouses in the region.

But New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark went on record saying her country had encouraged the United States to increase its involvement in the region on those very grounds.

Indeed, Hill has been hopping around the Pacific for a few months now, having visited Honiara, announcing the opening of an office there, and Wellington—where he asked for New Zealand’s “eyes” to view the Pacific and generally praising the country for its long and friendly relationships with the Pacific Islands states.

There is little doubt that America’s interest extends far beyond the Pacific Islands nations’ vote-casting abilities at the UN General Assembly. Thanks to North Korea’s ongoing hostile posturings, it has had a presence in the Northern Pacific for over 50 years.

Most of its offshore Pacific territories with the exception of American Samoa also happen to be located in the Northern Pacific Ocean. The North Pacific, therefore, has always been strategically important for it.

But all these past decades, the Southern Ocean was never really a worry, what with the vast expanse of water with a sparse sprinkling of small harmless isles extending all the way to the shores of long-time ally and regional superpower Australia.

If ever there was a problem, the local sheriff seemed more than capable of taking care of things, as was seen in the Solomon Islands and East Timor crises.

Not any more. With the involvement of China, Taiwan, Japan—and even France—getting deeper and more complex in the South Pacific with each passing year, the United States has obviously been advised by Australia and New Zealand that things are no longer what they used to be. Clark’s statement is testimony to that. China’s ongoing sparring with Taiwan could well spillover to the Pacific Islands Forum itself.

There are straws in the wind already: China bared its fangs month at the Post-Forum Dialogue Meeting, when its assistant foreign minister openly accused Taiwan of spreading corruption in the region with its chequebook diplomacy.

It is the first time that such an open allegation was made by one of the two parties at an event as important as the Forum.

This growing conflict between China and Taiwan in the islands has given a whole new dimension to the region’s geopolitics that could in the foreseeable future lead to situations that Australia and New Zealand may not have the necessary clout to deal with between themselves if things go awry. It would pay to have a superpower like the United States ready at hand.

Besides, the South Pacific region is one of the world’s last resource rich regions, especially in terms of fish stocks.

With the Northern oceans hopelessly overfished, the islands region will be the theatre of future battles for natural resources.

Having no resources to safeguard their own eco-zones by themselves, the tiny nations will have to increasingly depend on their rich friends and allies for those services.

So there is a lot more than mere UN General Assembly votes here. The interest of competing Asian powers that have the potential to fuel future conflicts, the region’s vast natural resources, overweening territorial and geopolitical ambition will undoubtedly alter the South Pacific region’s oceanscape in the coming decades.

This is a great opportunity for the islands nations to leverage this huge interest in their region from the world’s big powers.

With unity of purpose and pragmatism, they could well turn the situation to their great advantage if they play their cards well. If not, neo-colonialism will be their lot.