How crucial are their findings

Asterio Takesy
It takes events like tropical cyclones, droughts, and flash floods to make people realise how important meteorological services are.

It’s now common in the Pacific Islands region to hear daily reports of weather being cooler or warmer than in the same period last year or that a string of severe hurricanes sweeping over a region is no longer exceptional.

Without a doubt, climate patterns are changing and meteorological (Met) services in the Pacific are increasingly tested through the occurrences of natural disasters—and even more through irregular climate patterns.

This has altered the view of “weather people”: they are not merely there to tell the public whether one should leave the house with an umbrella.

Collectively our Met services have developed into bodies that contribute to major decision-making on all levels ranging from household to international. Industries such as tourism, agriculture, forestry, fisheries, construction, transport and public works are affected by weather and climate variabilities.

They can incur huge dollar losses or savings if early warnings and weather and climate forecasts are not taken seriously.

We hear and read of El Niño and La Niña reports and debates on climate change impacts on local weather and climate. El Niño Southern Oscillation (also known as ENSO) and La Niña are prolonged sea surface temperature anomalies across the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean and can have both positive and devastating impacts on Pacific Islands environments. 

Does climate change provoke hurricanes? A 2006 Island Press publication titled ‘Global Environmental Governance’ by James Gustave Speth and Peter M. Haas says: “One cannot associate a particular hurricane with global warming, but scientists are reasonably confident that global warming is increasing the odds of intense, high-energy hurricanes.”

National Met services have a responsibility to record weather on a daily basis consistently and correctly.

For this to happen, they need standardised equipment, the right policies in place and access to information such as historical data and international cooperation. This comes out through various projects and meetings.

The 11th Regional Meteorological Services Directors (RMSD) meeting in July this year, facilitated by SPREP, highlighted the following areas needing immediate action: Met services equipment must meet the standards set by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO); the need for more aviation meteorology training; management and exchange of climate data, as well as support for more institutional training.

The meeting of Pacific Met services included representatives from Australia, New Zealand and the United States. 

They agreed that SPREP should undertake a review of the regional meteorology strategic action plan that was first initiated in 1999.

SPREP is in the process of putting together a roadmap for the review of that plan.

The first annual meeting took place in 1994. With growing devastating impacts of severe weather and climate events since, the forum has evolved into a key support mechanism for national, regional and international efforts and obligations.

The focus is on monitoring and provision of advance warnings and forecasts on weather and climate-related extremes, tsunami early warning and disaster management.

Pacific members of SPREP, who are also part of the RMSD, carry out their work in the context of Multilateral Environment Agreements (MEAs) such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), and World Meteorological Organisation policies.

These international institutions exist to support good governance among its members and raise country standards to keep up with international developments.

This can only help Pacific Islands Met services respond better to weather changes and climate trends.
In its role as the United States climate authority, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) reports that El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and likely to continue into early 2007. Although the El Niño condition is described as ‘weak’, NOAA predicts it could strengthen into a moderate event. 

The developing El Niño has large implications for several sectors ranging from water services to agriculture.
It is important to understand that the term ‘weak’ is a measure of the intensity of the actual meteorological event; it does not mean that the event will be gentle or mild in its effects.

For example, the weak El Niño that occurred at the end of 2004 resulted in a record of five tropical cyclones that devastated the Cook Islands within a single month.

Both El Niño and La Niña have profound impacts on climate in the Southern Hemisphere. The NOAA report provides early information about an event that may or may not strengthen and is exactly the type of information sharing that Met services monitor, report and advise on.

It is then the responsibility of concerned parties to take action on the basis of such information. We face various weather and climate extremes and their impacts. It was not long ago that category five Cyclone Heta wreaked havoc on Niue in 2004 with wind speeds over 250 kilometres per hour. Samoa and parts of northern Tonga were also hit.

Economic impacts included a slump in gold production at the Porgera gold mine in Papua New Guinea following an extended El Niño-influenced drought in 1998.

In 1997, Fiji’s fish industry lost about F$800,000 over some four months in 1997 as a result of El Niño.  It takes extreme events to make people realise the importance of meteorological services. We often hear about how vulnerable our islands environment is and I agree that it cannot be overstressed.

As individuals living with limited resources and constrained by physical isolation and size, we must take that extra step to ensure our security.

Meteorological disaster predictions and early warnings services will not prevent disasters, but they can help us make some informed decisions, increase preparedness and heighten public awareness.

While most Met services are in a better position today than ten years ago, a lot of work remains to support their continued vital operation and contribution to national development.

• Asterio Takesy is director of SPREP based in Apia, Samoa.