However, unpleasant it may sound, the jetset town of Nadi will need to be relocated to an elevated piece of land by 2027. And so as Navua and Labasa.

That's the word from one of the most esteemed scientists in our part of the ocean, Professor Patrick Nunn of the University of the South Pacific (USP).

"Unthinkable an option relocation is to many of us, there has to be however acceptance that some places cannot continue to be occupied or utilised (as they are today) in the future," said Professor Nunn.

"Disruption associated with relocation can be reduced by early (anticipatory) action," he added.

Nadi town, for example, currently sits at sea level. But because of its location coupled with the high discharge from deforested water catchments and the town's own high run-off, Nadi would continuously be threatened by devastating flooding and other storm water surges, Dr Nunn said.

Nunn is a professor of Oceanic Geoscience at USP and is the only Pacific islands based member of the United Nations Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

For their ground-breaking work on the science of climate change and the mitigation and adaptation measures required, IPCC was a joint winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. (It shared the award with former United States Vice President Al Gore.)

In a paper presented at last month's Pacific round-table on climate change in Samoa, Professor Nunn said between 1890 and 1990, global temperatures rose by an average of 0.5¡C.

But he said between 1990 and 2100, temperatures globally are projected to rise between 1.4¡C and 6.4¡C. The rise in temperature will also see a rise in sea level.

Between the years 1890 to 1990, global sea level, scientists say, rose by an average of 15cm.

Future projections

For 14 years alone, from 1993 to 2007, sea level rose by another 4.3cm.

And the future projections?

Professor Nunn said from 1990 to 2100, the sea level globally is expected to rise between 20cm and 60cm.

By these predictions, scientists say, Nadi River would have been submerged and the town itself would have to be abandoned because it would be under water.

Actually, Nunn said other towns in Fiji and around the Pacific would be similarly threatened.

"If we consider Fiji, then I regard Navua and Labasa as being even more vulnerable," Nunn said in response to an electronic mail query the magazine sent him. 

"Obviously, there is concern about coastal towns in other countries in our region too.

"I am not going to make any predictions about Nadi Airport because, like most valued infrastructure, money will undoubtedly be found to preserve it if it became threatened by sea-level rise. But I do not see how enough money will ever be found to build the necessary engineering structures to keep rising waters out of the central part of Nadi Town. 

"The same applies to the lower parts of Navua and Labasa. 

"The only long-term solution is relocation and, the sooner this message is taken seriously by decision-makers, the less painful will be the impact."

The university scientist believes the impact of climate change is already affecting large tourism projects around the Nadi coast.

But like Nadi Airport, he suspects there would be enough capital to mitigate against the damage.

"Denarau is already having problems in parts but again, like Nadi Airport, there is probably enough money to preserve the investment. 

"The same is true of Momi and Natadola. I know the Natadola area quite well (my research team is excavating Fiji's earliest human settlement at Bourewa nearby). 

"While I think the tourist development at Natadola will be preserved for decades, it will need some fairly challenging engineering.

"I would expect Sanasana koro to become uninhabitable within the next 20 to 30 years if sea level rises as projected. 

"The latest report of the IPCC also projects that Fiji will become seasonally wetter in the future and this may well pose problems for the Tuva River drainage behind the Natadola development."

Contingency plan?

If you think the town administrators and the interim government are scrambling to put in place a contingency plan for relocation, think again.

Robin Ali, Nadi's town clerk, said the matter of relocation has not featured in any of the town council's meetings.

"For us it's not the way to go really," said Ali.

"With the help of the Ministry of Agriculture, we are looking at other alternatives like dredging and better drainage."

Recent flooding of the town's shops and office complexes left thousands of dollars in damage, the latest being May 2007 when the entire town area, including its main bus and taxi stations, were under two to three feet of flood waters for more than 12 hours.

Unhelpful has been the Nadi River that runs beside the town's western borders. It tends to burst its banks whenever there is a heavy downfall.

Several commercial operators in Nadi have been unable since 2007 to secure flood covers, as insurance companies have refused to underwrite flood related losses.

Babu Ganesh, who runs one of the largest souvenir stores in Nadi town, Nad's Handicraft, said most insurance agents are only providing a fixed flood cover of F$10,000.

"So if the cost of damage from flooding is estimated at more than $10,000, then it's too bad, you just have to borne that loss on your own," Ganesh told FIJI BUSINESS.

He said insurance companies are also insisting that floors of insured buildings ought to be raised two feet above the ground.

The successful businessman has heard about Professor Nunn's predictions, saying he read it in the news media.

But for relocation to happen, someone will have to foot the bill, pointing to the dilemma people like Ali, the town clerk, have to grapple with.

"Yes I can look at relocation, but who is going to pay the cost of moving, of compensation for our buildings and construction of new ones," asked Ganesh.

"And there's the question of land, who is going to give us land, and where will this land be."

FIJI BUSINESS knows the Ministry of Local Government has no plans for relocations of vulnerable towns and centres.

We were told any such plans would have to be initiated by the Department of Environment whose director was not available to talk to us as he was away on duty travel overseas.

Director for Land Resources and Water Management at the Ministry of Agriculture Lakshman Mudaliar would not take our questions either.

He asked that they be channelled through the ministry's information office.

But in a government media statement that was released in April this year, Mudaliar was reported to have said that dredging of the mouth of Nadi River had been completed. It cost taxpayers $3.3 million.

Now, his department is awaiting more money to pursue the second and third phases of dredging.

This, Ali said, included clearing the soil and other sediments three kilometres upriver from the town area.

For now, dredging seems to be working, Ali said.

"We've had some heavy rain in the past few months and the town was not flooded," he said.

Nadi's town administrator did say another option they were considering was the diversion of the river away from the town, from somewhere near Saunaka village and take it right over to Wailoaloa Beach.

Asked what would be the point of all the costly works if as predicted by scientists, Nadi town would be under water in 20 years time, Ali said: "Well may be we should talk about it, but who is going to pay for all these."