AIRBUS’ A350 TO TAKE ON BOEING’S ‘DREAMLINER’: Premature to predict who’ll be the winner

Dev Nadkarni
(Islands Business, August 2006)

With delays on its airbus A380 super jumbo deliveries, the European plane-maker is looking at its midsize, long range A350 as competition to Boeing’s 787. It unveiled the A350 XWB at last month’s Farnborough International Air Show.

Dreamliner... Boeing’s answer to Airbus’ A350.

The ongoing debate in aviation circles about the pros and cons of the completely opposite long-term strategies of the world’s two biggest passenger plane-makers—Boeing and Airbus—promises to continue for some more time. This follows Airbus Industrie’s announcement in June that it was way behind schedule in the delivery of the A380 by as many as seven months owing to technical problems.

The biggest ever passenger plane to fly, the A380, is a manifestation of Airbus’ belief that the future belongs to super long-range mega planes as against Boeing’s contention that the future dynamics of the global aviation industry would be better addressed by long-range planes but of sizes much smaller than Airbus’ super jumbo.
Boeing backed its belief with the B787—also called the Dreamliner—the aircraft that regional airlines like Air Pacific are acquiring. The Dreamliner is expected to begin commercial flights from 2008.

Airbus’ June announcement of delays in the delivery of the A380 was followed by the resignations of Gustav Humbert, one of the company’s two co-chief executives, and Noel Forgeard, co-chief of EADS (European Aeronautic Defence & Space Company), the business entity that controls Airbus.

Some of the top executives were also embroiled in the controversy regarding not having properly briefed the company’s shareholders in time about the massive delay. Regulators have also been investigating the manner in which shares were traded by executives in the months directly before the announcement.

Major airports all over the world have had to build additional facilities to accommodate the A380. Early this year, Auckland completed alterations to one of its terminals to service the two-storey giant aircraft. Auckland is the closest airport to the Pacific islands market that is equipped to handle the A380.

But like all other airports and airlines that ordered the planes, Auckland will have to wait at least until next year before the first passengers disembark from the A380.

Aviation watchers feel that negative publicity as a result of the delayed delivery has affected Airbus Industrie’s order book severely this year.

In the first half of 2006, new aircraft orders fell to 117, down from 276 orders in the same period last year. Boeing, on the other hand, saw an increase with 487 orders in the first six months this year, up from 439 in the same period in 2005.

But both Airbus and aviation experts feel, Airbus orders will pick up as the year progresses.

Airbus’ order book overtook Boeing’s last year. Although it has seen a drop in orders this year, it will actually deliver more planes—a total of 219 compared to 189 last year. Boeing is expected to book more orders than Airbus this year.

Following the delays in the A380, Airbus is now aggressively marketing its smaller A350 XWB. At the Farnborough International Air Show last month, it unveiled new plans for the mid-size long-range aircraft, which indeed, is a logical rival to Boeing’s Dreamliner.

The twin-engine, twin-aisle A350 XWB (Extra Wide Body) compares much better in terms of size, seat capacity and range with the Dreamliner than the A380.

Airbus is also looking at several versions of the aircraft including a larger, more fuel-efficient one as well as a freighter version to fit into the A350 family.

Various versions of the A350 XWB are however expected to enter commercial service between 2010 and 2012—two to four years after its rival Dreamliner, which so far has seemed to be more popular with the airlines as far as orders go.

Airbus is working hard to include the latest technological features both in the cockpit and the airframe. At this stage, experts believe it is too premature to predict which of the two rival plane-makers will emerge the winner in the longer term.

One view is that most airlines would never need an aircraft as large as the A380 (like all Pacific Islands airlines, for instance), others believe that once it gets its act together and deliveries commence early next year, Airbus will sell enough A380s to break even—it may however take much longer to do so than previously estimated.

But as to which strategy—long-range super jumbo versus long-range midsize—will ultimately come up tops is anybody’s guess—at least for some years to come.